Forecasters Warn This Year’s El Niño Could Be Worst in California’s History
Forecasters are sounding the alarm that the return of El Niño this year could be one of the worst in California’s history if it develops as many meteorologists have recently predicted — and the phenomenon already appears to be in motion.
This week, a cluster of tropical cyclones were recorded on both sides of the equator in the western Pacific Ocean, generating a westerly wind burst that is pushing warm water eastward, and accelerating “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years,” Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany told the San Francisco Chronicle.
The rare cluster of tropical cyclones, which are fueling the westerly wind burst, points to signs El Niño could be emerging and may set records. The strong westerly wind bursts have been documented in the Pacific Ocean all year, pushing unusually warm water, following the end to the La Niña pattern.
Roundy estimated the setup could cause El Niño to arrive quickly, within one to two months. Last month, one of the leading weather forecast models calculated a 62 percent chance that a strong El Niño could develop in the summer.
Over the past two decades, the name El Niño has become synonymous with extreme weather. El Niño occurs when there is a change in the Pacific Ocean’s typical pattern of water movement, temperatures and air flow, which happens about every two to seven years. The southern jet stream strengthens, especially in the eastern Pacific Ocean, bringing more moisture into the southwest and storm activity in the southern part of the country.

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