Forecasters are sounding the alarm that the return of El Niño this year could be one of the worst in California’s history if it develops as many meteorologists have recently predicted — and the phenomenon already appears to be in motion.
This week, a cluster of tropical cyclones were recorded on both sides of the equator in the western Pacific Ocean, generating a westerly wind burst that is pushing warm water eastward, and accelerating “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years,” Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany told the San Francisco Chronicle.
The rare cluster of tropical cyclones, which are fueling the westerly wind burst, points to signs El Niño could be emerging and may set records. The strong westerly wind bursts have been documented in the Pacific Ocean all year, pushing unusually warm water, following the end to the La Niña pattern.
Roundy estimated the setup could cause El Niño to arrive quickly, within one to two months. Last month, one of the leading weather forecast models calculated a 62 percent chance that a strong El Niño could develop in the summer.
Over the past two decades, the name El Niño has become synonymous with extreme weather. El Niño occurs when there is a change in the Pacific Ocean’s typical pattern of water movement, temperatures and air flow, which happens about every two to seven years. The southern jet stream strengthens, especially in the eastern Pacific Ocean, bringing more moisture into the southwest and storm activity in the southern part of the country.
The return of this year’s climate phenomenon is being dubbed Super El Niño, and in some cases, Godzilla El Niño, which could trigger weather-related disasters and monstrous heatwaves in California during the 2026-2027 weather season. Strong El Niño years have historically seen torrential winter storms, flooding and coastal erosion in the Golden State.
In California, El Niño’s winter impact is usually strongest, bringing high tides, flooding and powerful snow and rain storms.
El Niño doesn’t usually lead to higher temperatures in the summer, but this year it could contribute to record global temperatures.
While this year’s El Niño could deliver record rainfall amid California’s ongoing drought, forecasters warned it’s unlikely to solve the water deficit. According to Drought.gov, the American Southwest has been in drought for nearly six years — and it will take more than one year of heavy rain to refill low reservoirs, streams, and aquifers.
Philip Gonsalves, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in San Diego, cautioned that although there are signs of an El Niño developing, it’s not always a guarantee of a strong a El Niño season, if it happens.
“There are too many factors that affect seasonal rainfall,” Gonsalves said.
From Patch San Diego
