Numbers and Graphs on COVID-19 Cases in San Diego County

by Source on April 29, 2020 · 7 comments

Here are some sobering graphs and numbers on county COVID-19 cases from the San Diego County health department and one from the San Diego Union-Tribune. Does that curve look likes it flattening out?

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{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }

Geoff Page April 29, 2020 at 12:31 pm

I’m not trying to downplay the significance of the COVID threat but I think it is also important to have a perspective. The first graph shows 3,314 cases in San Diego County. The county has a population of 3.338 million people. That calculates to one tenth of one percent of the county’s population.

Peter from South O April 29, 2020 at 12:49 pm

On our best day we tested around 3000 people out of a population of over 3 million. Where testing has been more controlled and scientific in nature a large number of asymptomatic positive cases were detected. We are not doing testing of the general population, so we do not have any freekin’ IDEA of how many people have this disease in SD county. Forget any margin of error discussions, or percentage of faulty positives and negatives; the number of tests is statistically insignificant at this point in time.
We do not know the denominator.

Geoff Page April 29, 2020 at 12:58 pm

The graph says 3,314 confirmed cases. Even if there are 10 times as many people actually infected but not sick, that’s still one percent of the county. Like I said, not downplaying it, just providing some perspective that some might find comforting.

Peter from South O April 29, 2020 at 1:18 pm: It could be 50 thousand, or 500 thousand. We Do Not Know!

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thequeenisalizard April 29, 2020 at 5:49 pm

SD Mayor – since there has been no flatting of curve, these charts are confusing. What to do, what to do? I know, we should open the beaches!

Geoff Page April 30, 2020 at 8:22 am

The charts are not at all confusing. They could be better labeled. The first one should have a legend showing that the little dark bars at the bottom are the daily cases diagnosed and the big, tall bars are the cumulative totals. The “curve” to look at is the one created by the small dark bars, not the big curve of the cumulative totals.

thequeenisalizard April 30, 2020 at 9:23 am: My point was there were more scientific reasons to keep the beaches closed rather than trusting people to “Do the right thing”.
After watching videos from around the state at open beaches, the Governor closed all of them today.

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