‘Mixed Results’ from Influx of Unprecedented Amounts of Cash in Primary for San Diego City Council

David Garrick at the San Diego U-T wrote an analysis of the current City Council races on July 12th, and here is a summary of some of his findings.

First, they “attracted an unprecedented amount of cash this year from groups funded by labor unions, business interests and statewide organizations,” and he found “the results were decidedly mixed.”

For example, in the District 2 race, “A committee supporting Josh Coyne … spent $300,000, but Coyne didn’t come close to making the November runoff.” In contrast, “Richard Bailey finished first in District 2 thanks partly to more than $200,000 in committee support.”

Yet, candidate Rafael Perez in the District 8 race finished last despite $150,000 in committee support. One of the candidates who made the primary run-off was Gerardo Ramirez “after benefiting from more than $200,000 in committee support….”

Overall, the monies spent on these races “are dramatically higher than typical San Diego council race contributions from independent committees, which allow supporters to exceed the $800 maximum an individual can contribute directly to a campaign,” reports Garrick.

Such committees, which are required to raise and spend money independently from the candidate they support, also make it possible for corporations, labor unions and merchant groups to participate at all. City campaign rules bar those types of organizations from contributing directly to candidates, but they can contribute to committees that either support or oppose individual candidates.

One of the obvious reasons that Garrick admittedly missed in why much more was contributed this year to these committees, was that “two council seats — Districts 2 and 8 — are open seats with termed-out incumbents.” Open seats could and have attracted more attention. Garrick: “The last two council elections in 2022 and 2024 each had only one open seat — District 6 in 2022 and District 4 in 2024 — and almost no committee spending.”

Both District 4 and 6 have an incumbent up for re-election. Notably, as the  Rag has stated in the recent past, the incumbent in District 4, Henry Foster, appeared to have kept his powder dry and didn’t engage with much of his resources — which could have been a fatal move. (This was not from Garrick.)

Garrick does rightfully maintain that “San Diego council races are generally low-profile contests with relatively little at stake — especially in a primary.” He cites the race in D8 – “while hotly contested, featured four Democrats with similar views on most issues and no clear impact on the city’s toughest challenges — housing, homelessness and the budget crisis.”

District 2

And for Garrick, “…District 2 features a Republican-turned-independent in Bailey who could, if elected, break up the all-Democratic City Council for the first time since Republican Chris Cate was termed out in 2022.” Garrick didn’t bring up the District 6 Republican challenger to Kent Lee because the primary results didn’t have them all that close.

With most of his focus on District 2, Garrick pondered “why the big spending had such patchy results in the June primary.” He noted the factors: money, a compelling message and support from a major party.

Political consultants often say that money is important in political races but that it typically only works for candidates who also have a compelling message, a natural appeal to voters or both. Strong support from a political party can also help a candidate overcome big opposition spending by an independent committee, …

Garrick notes, however, “Nicole Crosby didn’t get nearly the kind of committee support Coyne and Bailey got in District 2 — but she was endorsed by the county Democratic Party in a heavily Democratic district and easily advanced to the runoff.”

Another possible reason Crosby easily beat Coyne for the runoff’s second slot opposing Bailey — despite Coyne’s $300,000 in committee money — is her compelling pitch as a candidate. She’s a city prosecutor who served on the Clairemont Town Council and a school parent-teacher association.

In contrast, “Coyne works for a downtown merchants group and didn’t boast such a breadth of community involvement. The bulk of Coyne’s independent support came from a local construction union, Local 89 of the Laborers International Union.”

Garrick failed to mention that Coyne used to work for current D2 councilwoman Jen Campbell, who has lost respect from voters across the district.

Garrick also analyzed “that Bailey appears to have benefited from his committee support, most of which came from business interests, because he finished first. But he only led Crosby by 475 votes and got under 35% of the votes cast.”

In November, [Bailey] will need to win a majority of voters in a district where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one. It’s likely Bailey’s narrow first-place margin is partly because of an independent committee opposing Bailey that got more than $150,000 from local labor unions and the county Democratic Party.

District 8

The County Democratic Party in D8 declined to endorse any candidate rating all four “as qualified.” In that ostensible vacuum, Garrick surmises that “committee money appears to have been a key factor in helping Gerardo Ramirez secure the second slot in the District 8 runoff to face first-place finisher Antonio Martinez in November.” He received “more than $200,000 from a statewide committee focused on electing Latino candidates that is strongly influenced by Assemblymember David Alvarez.”

Ramirez narrowly edged Venus Molina by 302 votes for second place, possibly because he received significantly more committee financial support than the roughly $50,000 Molina had.

Could it also be because Molina has had a checkered career in city hall and maybe some voters wanted to show disdain for the city?

Perez, who got $75,000 each from the American Federation of Teachers and the National Association of Realtors, finished a relatively distant fourth.

Finally, Garrick advises that “Exact contributions by campaign committees won’t be known until final disclosures for the June primary get submitted at the end of this month [July]. The figures used are based on the latest reports, which cover contributions and spending through May 29.”