Nicole Crosby is “cautiously optimistic,” she told the Rag this morning, the day after her apparent victory over former Republican Richard Bailey for the District 2 city council seat. Currently, she leads Bailey by 9 percentage points and by a little over 3,000 votes. Ballot counting continues.
Crosby leads Bailey 54.5% to 45.6%, with 18,188 votes to 15,218.
Crosby spoke to me this morning when I called to congratulate her. She sounded happy but exhausted.Yet she felt the numbers would hold. She also told me that Bailey had yet to call her to concede or congratulate her.
Crosby:
“This race has always been about fighting for my neighbors in District 2. From the parents and teachers at my daughter’s school, to the librarians, emergency service workers and skilled trades workers in our community, we did this together. Working families are the backbone of San Diego and we deserve results from City Hall.
Our next chapter will focus on getting back to basics: fixing streets and streetlights, working to improve affordability so seniors can stay in their homes and families can raise their children in the neighborhoods they grew up in. We will make sure our tax dollars are invested in our communities. I look forward to showing up for the residents in District 2. Thank you.”
Earlier, she told the U-T just after the initial results were posted, that she was pleased to be ahead in a tough race.:
“The numbers look pretty good. We put in a lot of work in a race where a lot of money was spent against us. … San Diegans are looking for a positive tomorrow.”
Crosby has vowed to focus on the basics like fixing sidewalks and streetlights.
The District 2 race was one of the most closely watched — and most expensive — races in the county. Crosby said her connection to the community is what matters.
“Whether it’s the PTA or the town council or the regular seniors that are at the coffee shop or the library,” Crosby said Tuesday night. “It’s really getting back to basics and not pushing them aside. It’s about showing up and being the voice for them and making sure that they know we’re in this fight together.”
If her win holds, she will potentially be the third new face on the city council, if Martha Abraham holds her advantage over Henry Foster, along with the apparent winner in District 8, Antonio Martinez. Crosby, of course a Democrat, will continue the party’s dominance on the chief deliberative body for the city of San Diego. Crosby is also a former deputy city attorney, like councilmembers Raul Campillo and Marni von Wilpert — who just won her battle with Jim Desmond for the 48th US Congressional District.
Crosby’s victory also means that District 2 will remain in the Democratic Party fold, despite the failings of her Democratic predecessor Jen Campbell and the Republican Lori Zapf before her. The UT’s David Garrick reported:
The battle between Bailey and Crosby has focused on slashing city jobs, taking money from developers, carpetbagging and whether there’s a need for contrarian voices at San Diego City Hall [plus for some reason rebuilding the OB Pier has also been an issue between them].
The race has attracted an unusually large amount of campaign cash. Independent expenditure committees supporting either Bailey or Crosby spent more than $750,000 this fall.
For the record, the Rag had endorsed Crosby, whereas the Union-Tribune and La Prensa had endorsed Bailey.
I would like to know how many more votes need to be counted.
When you figure it out, please let us know.
In 2024, 93,568 voters were registered in district 2. Currently, 33,406 votes have been counted. So roughly 36%.
Voter turnout is estimated to be ~64% (adding up outstanding and counted ballots vs registered voter number shown here). https://www.livevoterturnout.com/ENR/sandiegocaenr/25/en/Index_25.html
That would mean ~26200 votes are outstanding. Someone else can do the math on the ratio by which he would have to outperform her to make up for the 9 point difference. It would be possible if early votes came mainly from Clairemont where she was favored but fingers crossed that won’t be the case.
If Mel’s estimate of the outstanding ballots is correct Bailey would need 56.85% of the uncounted vote to overtake Crosby, and I apologize for killing a polar bear to get that answer. Unless the uncounted votes are concentrated in some Bailey stronghold, whatever that might be, Crosby is the new councilmember.
Congratulations to Nicole. Like probably every other person reading this, I’m just hoping Nicole Crosby isn’t another Jenn Campbell.
I spent the last two weeks knocking doors for her and got to know her pretty well. I can confidently assure you that she will not be another Jenn Campbell. Nicole has a passion for the job that comes from deep roots in the community. She also built a fabulous team. It was inspiring to work with those guys. If she ends up as your representative, I don’t think you will be disappointed.
Good to see MAGA carpetbaggers lose in our district.
Congratulations to Nicole. Time to roll up the sleeves & get to work.
And to the 16, 000 slugs who voted for MAGA Bailey:
If you ever notice me enjoying a wonderful cuppa Joe & a delicious dessert at Azucar on Newport, do not approach me; do not say good morning; do not even offer your smug little devious smile.
I have been done with the KKK for decades; done with MAGA; done with Republicans; done with Bull Connor SOBs; done with ICE. Done with Nazis.
Done
First thing on Nicole’s agenda should be to fire anyone who has worked for Jen Campbell!
Yes, fire all Campbell staff asap! Bye Bye Jen & good riddance: she lied to OB! Congrats to Nicole ?
I am hugely encouraged by Crosby’s apparent success. She is noting like Campbell, who was taught as a physician to behave as though she is on an island. There is now the possibility that we in Mission Beach might be able to recover some of our housing back from short term rentals, so once again we might have a real community. Thanks to the all who voted for her and to the Rag.