By Richard Allyn / CBS8 / October 22, 2025
With less than two weeks until California’s special election on Prop 50 [on November 4], a new CBS News poll released on Wednesday reveals that 62% of likely voters support the ballot measure, which would redraw the state’s congressional lines in ways that would make it easier for Democrats to win five districts currently held by Republicans.
The poll, which surveyed more than 1,500 registered California voters, shows a significant jump in support compared to earlier polls that put backing in the low 50s. However, according to Governor Gavin Newsom, the ultimate outcome depends on voter participation.
“Polls don’t vote, people vote. And this is a special election. I’m not naive, it is about turn-out, period, full-stop,” said Newsom.
The CBS News poll reveals starkly different motivations between supporters and opponents of the measure. Among those voting yes, 75% say it is a way to oppose President Donald Trump, and 70% cite opposition to national Republicans. In contrast, 51% of non-voters say their reason is to oppose Governor Newsom, viewing the redistricting as a state issue rather than a national one. ‘No on 50’ voters are concerned that redistricting would shift power away from California’s rural areas toward cities.
According to Political Data Inc., a data firm tracking mail-in ballot returns, more than 3.4 million ballots—or 15% of all ballots—have been returned as of Wednesday. The returns show an even split between party affiliations, with 17% of registered Democrats and 17% of registered Republicans casting ballots, while only 10% of independents have voted.
“Really, this does kind of come down to ‘Team Red’ versus ‘Team Blue,'” said Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc.
Mitchell suggests the independent vote could prove decisive.
“Democrats see this as their only ability to push back on Trump and what’s happening in Texas and in other states, Republicans are opposing it, and independents are somewhat split,” Mitchell told CBS 8.
He added that “the ‘coastal’ independents will generally be more progressive, and some of the inland independents will be more conservative. But that in California could be a winning recipe for the ‘Yes’ side.”
The measure has generated unprecedented campaign activity for a special election.
“Even though this is an odd year, I think a lot of people are galvanized by this campaign, because you can’t avoid it. You turn on your TV, you open your computer, you open your mailbox. You’re hearing some message about Prop 50,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego.
The San Diego region stands to experience particularly significant consequences if Prop 50 passes. The 48th Congressional District, currently represented by Republican Darrel Issa, is composed of 41% registered Republicans and 29% registered Democrats. If the measure passes, those numbers would flip to 33% Republican and 37% Democrat.
“The eyes of the country are on California right now,” Kousser told CBS 8. “It will have a deep impact on San Diego, where if Prop 50 passes we are going to have a real battleground in the 48th Congressional district where both parties will be fighting out for control.”
