San Diego County’s population has stayed flat over the last decade, Axios San Diego reports.
For a full analysis, one must take into account the actual population changes and the natural population change — the difference between births and deaths.
San Diego County’s population shrunk by 20,051 people from 2014-2018 to 2019-2023, or a change of 0.6%.
Yet, San Diego’s natural population change — the difference between births and deaths — was positive in 2023, with births outpacing deaths by 12,882.
But more people moved away than moved here during that time, so the region’s overall population shrunk, therefore, the population overall took a hit, because 30,745 more people left the county than moved here.
Quoting the SD Union-Tribune, Axios reported, “That’s the largest one-year decline in domestic migration in nearly 30 years, excluding the first year of the pandemic…”
While the County’s residents shrank, in comparison, Los Angeles County’s population decreased by 2.5% and San Francisco County’s fell by 3.9% during that same time. It was a different story inland. Sacramento County grew by 4.9% during that period, while Riverside County led Southern California with its 2.8% growth rate. This confirms that California’s fastest growing counties are in the state’s inland areas, while some of its biggest metro areas are seeing the biggest population decreases, per an Axios analysis of the latest census data.
Axios reported:
San Diego County lost more than 25,000 residents from 2020 to 2023 — a 0.8% drop in population, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Their take:
San Diego is no longer a growth machine, as the city has become one of the most expensive in the nation, making homeownership unaffordable for many.
By the numbers: Nearly 3.27 million people lived in San Diego County as of July, per census data.
That’s down 7,200 from 2022, a year that saw population growth after a pandemic exodus statewide. The region’s population stood at 3.295 million in July 2020, but high cost of living has since driven population declines.
Even though, “The region grew by 1 million people from 1980 to 2000; however, San Diego added only half a million people in the past 20 years. Part of the reason: While the region’s death rate increased, its birth rate decreased and migration stayed flat. The big picture: San Diego County had the ninth-largest domestic out-migration in 2023. Los Angeles was first, with nearly 120,000 people leaving the county.”
What Axios did not discuss is what these population trends mean for the projections needed for housing in San Diego County. We’ve maintained that these projections, based on SANDAG’s numbers, are overblown and do not accurately predict our current and future housing needs.
But, but, but, there’s a housing shortage (wink, wink).
Interesting. Chris, why do you think people are leaving San Diego? Also I’m perplexed by why coastal cities are losing population but inland cities are gaining population. It’s a mystery to me.
It’s been reported for some time the state has lost population. Doesn’t matter why I think people are leaving. Just more info the elected ones choose to ignore.
One quick, short answer could be the cost of housing.
Why are coastal cities losing pop, but inland gaining? Simple. Money. Costs raising in coastal cities faster than inland. More room to construct homes/condo/apt in the east than the west.
But housing is so short. Thousands of units going up in the city of SD at this moment.
Will they be filled or have high vacancy?? Are those coming over the border not counted in population? Something may not be right.
SANDAG has tracked population for decades and has had a 2.7 people per housing unit for probably 40 years or more. But upcoming decades show the estimates of 2.3 per housing unit. An error in estimates? A loss of family units, increase in studio apartment?
Likely that aging demographics will shrink the number of people per home.