Recall Campbell or Newsom: Which One Reaches ‘Escape Velocity?’

By Colleen O’Connor

Campbell or Newsom: Which One Reaches “Escape Velocity?” Make an educated guess.  Based on what the public facing information thus far, consider these points.

The Recall initiative against Governor Newsom has already gathered the necessary, probably verifiable signatures, to require a special election; over two million.

The Recall initiative against Councilmember Campbell is just getting started, so the signature gathering numbers are as yet unknown.

Just as an aside, the volunteer effort is stronger against Campbell than Newsom and necessarily so.  Factor in that professional, paid signature gathering, now costs $7.50 per valid entry. The statewide Republican war chest helped pay for, and deliver, the professional results to recall Newsom.

Volunteers must match that effort to oust Campbell.

Now it gets interesting.  Assume both initiatives qualify to force an election.  Which one can attain “escape velocity” faster?  Newsom or Campbell?

Bet on Newsom.

The large statewide Democratic voting edge clearly favors Newsom; and thus far, his opponents (Faulconer and Cox) are mere dress-rehearsal, “what-if” gubernatorial substitutes. There are nearly 21 million eligible voters in CA.

The percentage of voters registered with the Democratic Party has increased from 45.1% to 46.3%.
The percentage of voters registered with the Republican Party has decreased from 27.1% to 24%.
Advantage Newsom.

Barring any more serious missteps (ala’ the French Laundry dinner) or mixed messaging on the COVID-19 epidemic; and an aloof, “shelter in place campaign,” he should survive any recall.  He may be bruised enough to make his 2022 re-election more costly, but he should weather the recall.

By contrast, San Diego City District 2 voter registration (a non-partisan race) makes Campbell’s future more problematic.

First, she must defend herself among her District 2 voters, where she enjoys no great partisan registration edge and clearly no great popularity.  Just ~56,000 votes were cast in her district, sprinkled among 7 candidates.

Do the math.  If roughly 20,000 valid signatures are collected to force the recall vote.  And, if a combo volunteer/professional campaign reaches that number, Campbell will most likely not survive.

A simple majority “yes” vote removes her.  And, surprise, whomsoever wins the highest number of votes among a large field that signs up to replace her, wins outright!

Again, contrast with Newsom.  Not one serious Democrat has offered their name as a replacement.

Why is Campbell so unpopular in her district.? She repeatedly lied to her constituents when running for office and has remained unrepentant since.

The biggest lie was her repeated promise to protect the 30’ height limit; a decision that was overwhelming supported by voters in 1970.

Once in office, she supported the removal of that limit and the introduction of a mega-development on the Midway site; with density and height up to 100’.

Why else is she vulnerable?

The very constituencies that will support Newsom may reject her; environmentalists; minority voters; slow growth advocates; anti-high-density factions; and all those those opposing  the noisome vacation rentals.

Look at district 2.  Its neighborhoods include Pacific Beach, Ocean Beach, Point Loma, Mission Beach and part of Clairemont.  Not only will their neighborhoods be affected by the loss of the 30’ height limit, so, too, might every other old stock neighborhood suffer the same fate.

The Campbell recall effort is really a city-wide issue. And many are waking up to that fact.

“Recall supporters have until early June to collect 14,421 signatures from registered voters in District 2. If they are successful, the recall election would likely take place in late November or early December 2021.”

For her part, Campbell has taken a page out of Trump’s playbook, calling those opposing her, “elites and extremists.”  Adding that the effort “is a waste of money.”

She insists the election would cost $2 million.  Another untruth.

If combined with the Newsom recall (probable in November) and the fact that every registered voter in District 2 would get a ballot in the mail; and be at least 10 mail ballot drop-off locations, the cost is significantly lower.

So, while Newsom has already lost round one (the signatures are enough to face a recall election), the heavily Democratic state voter registration will most likely save him from removal.  “Escape velocity” for now.

The opposite is true for Campbell.  If the signatures are collected, she may not reach that much desired “escape velocity” and could be ousted.  Thus, she needs to stop the signature gathering.

As in all elections, follow the money.  Do the math.  Watch the campaigns and vote your own interests.  Not those of the monied influencers.