COVID Cases Rising in Inland Empire and Central Valley; Concerns for San Diego

My weather app on my phone has been displaying daily totals of new COVID cases and deaths. Yesterday, the number of cases was 9,000 something. Today, it was 18,000 something.

In today’s LA Times, it’s reported that “COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen significantly in the Inland Empire and Central Valley,” and has raised the specter of a wider spike in California as the winter holidays approach.

Throughout California cases and hospitalizations hit a plateau after months of decline. In areas “with lower vaccination rates, such as Riverside, San Bernardino and Fresno counties, conditions are deteriorating, with hospitalizations up by more than 20% in recent weeks.

And even some places with relatively high vaccination rates are seeing COVID-19 hospitalizations tick upward; in Orange County’, COVID-19 hospitalizations are up 16% since Halloween.
Health officials have been warning about a potential new rise in COVID-19 in California as seniors who got their shots last winter — and haven’t received a booster shot — may start to see their immunity wane, leaving them exposed to greater risk for infection and hospitalization, and as people gather indoors more as the weather cools and the holidays approach.

Once optimistic just weeks ago, officials in the San Joaquin Valley now say Fresno County hospitals “really have never left the crisis,” said Dan Lynch, director of the Central California Emergency’ Medical Services Agency.

“The bigger hospitals are probably between 110% to 130% of normal capacity’. And they are all holding ICU patients, again, back in their emergency’ departments,” Lynch said. “We’re seeing the hospital emergency departments overwhelmed.”

Most hospitals have been forced to postpone scheduled surgeries, and some patients needing specialty’ care may need to be referred to other parts of California, officials said.

And those patients who need to be hospitalized “are unvaccinated people in their 30s, 40s and 50s”.

The November “plateau” is a forecast potentially of a statewide surge.

Of California’s five regions as defined by the state Department of Public Health, the San Joaquin Valley has the worst COVID-19 hospitalization rate, with 25 COVID-19 hospitalizations for every 100,000 residents; followed by rural Northern California, which has a rate of 16, and the Greater Sacramento area, with a rate of 14.

The statewide rate is 10, and the two most populous regions have rates below that: Southern California’s rate is 8, while the Bay Area’s is 4. Some experts believe it’s a sign of concern when COVID-19 hospitalization rates are 5 or greater for every 100,000 residents.

Within Southern California’s most populated areas, the Inland Empire has the worst COVID-19 hospitalization rates, with San Bernardino and Riverside counties reporting respective rates of 14 and 11. San Diego County is reporting 8; Orange County, 7; L.A. County, 6; and Ventura County, 4.

Since mid-October, COVTD-19 hospitalizations have risen by more than 27% in both San Bernardino and Fresno counties; in Riverside County, numbers are up by 21% over the last two weeks.
While health officials have largely been optimistic that the state’s relatively high level of vaccine coverage will keep conditions from deteriorating to the devastating extent seen last fall and winter, the turning of the calendar carries a host of additional risks.

Now that we’re having colder weather, people will increasingly stay and gather indoors which is where the risk of coronavirus transmission is higher.

Plus, with the holidays, people will be traveling more – possibly to an extent not seen since the pandemic began.

According to a recent survey commissioned by the American Hotel and Lodging Assn., 29% of Americans said they were likely to travel for Thanksgiving — up from 21% last year. The share of people who said they were likely to do so for Christmas, 33%, was also up from last year’s 24%.

Of those surveyed, 58% said they were planning to vacation somewhere within driving distance on account of the pandemic.

Unlike last year, health officials aren’t directly recommending residents avoid traveling for the holidays. Instead, they’re reiterating the importance of taking precautions.

And San Diego County is being warned.

San Diego County has a fairly high level of cases.

Which is why health experts are saying it’s urgent that unvaccinated people get their shots, including children age 5 to 11 who just became eligible last week.