By Ezra Klein / New York Times / Nov. 10, 2025
Back in September, when I was reporting an article on whether Democrats should shut down the government, I kept hearing the same warning from veterans of past shutdown fights: The president controls the bully pulpit. He controls, to some degree, which parts of the government stay open and which parts close. It is very, very hard for the opposition party to win a shutdown.
Which makes it all the more remarkable that Democrats were winning this one. Polls showed that most voters blamed Republicans, not Democrats, for the current shutdown — perhaps because President Trump was bulldozing the East Wing of the White House rather than negotiating to reopen the government. Trump’s approval rating has been falling — in CNN’s tracking poll, it dipped into the 30s for the first time since he took office again. And last week, Democrats wrecked Republicans in the elections and Trump blamed his party’s losses in part on the shutdown. Democrats were riding higher than they have been in months.
Then, over the weekend, a group of Senate Democrats broke ranks and negotiated a deal to end the shutdown in return for — if we’re being honest — very little.
The guts of the deal are this: Food assistance — both SNAP and WIC, I was told — will get a bit more funding, and there are a few other modest concessions on spending levels elsewhere in the government. Laid-off federal workers will be rehired and furloughed federal workers given back pay. Most of the government is funded only until the end of January. (So get ready: We could be doing this again in a few months.) Most gallingly, the deal does nothing to extend the expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits over which Democrats ostensibly shut down the government in the first place. All it offers is a promise from Republicans to hold a vote on the tax credits in the future. Of the dozen or so House and Senate Democrats I spoke to over the past 24 hours, every one expected that vote to fail.
To understand why this shutdown will end with such a whimper, you need to understand the strange role the A.C.A. subsidies played in it. Democrats said the shutdown was about the subsidies, but for most of them, it wasn’t. It was about Trump’s authoritarianism. It was about showing their base — and themselves — that they could fight back. It was about treating an abnormal political moment abnormally.
The A.C.A. subsidies emerged as the shutdown demand because they could keep the caucus sufficiently united. They put Democrats on the right side of public opinion — even self-identified MAGA voters wanted the subsidies extended — and held the quivering Senate coalition together. You shut the government down with the Democratic caucus you have, not with the Democratic caucus you want.
But the shutdown was built on a cracked foundation. There were Senate Democrats who didn’t want a shutdown at all. There were Senate Democrats who did want a shutdown but thought it strange to make their demand so narrow: Was winning on health care premiums really winning the right fight? Should Democrats really vote to fund a government turning toward authoritarianism as long as health insurance subsidies were preserved?
And what if winning on the health care fight was actually a political gift to Trump? Absent a fix, the average health insurance premium for 20 million Americans will more than double. The premium shock will hit red states particularly hard. Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s longtime pollster, had released a survey of competitive House districts showing that letting the tax credits expire might be lethal to Republican efforts to hold the House. Why were Democrats fighting so hard to neutralize their best issue in 2026?
The political logic of the shutdown fight was inverted: If Democrats got the tax credits extended — if they “won” — they would be solving a huge electoral problem for Republicans. If Republicans successfully allowed the tax credits to expire — if they “won” — they would be handing Democrats a cudgel with which to beat them in the elections.
This is why Senator Chuck Schumer’s compromise, which offered to reopen the government if Republicans extended the tax credits for a year, struck many Democrats as misguided. Morally, it might be worth sacrificing an electoral edge to lower health insurance premiums. But a one-year extension solved the Republicans’ electoral problem without solving the policy problem. Why on earth would they do that?
In any case, Republicans were not interested in Schumer’s offer. Trump himself has shown no interest in a deal. Rather than negotiating over health care spending, Trump has been ratcheting up the pain the shutdown is causing. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have been furloughed or fired. The administration has been withholding food assistance from Americans who desperately need it. Airports are tipping into chaos as air traffic controllers go without pay.
More than anything else, this is what led some Senate Democrats to cut a deal: Trump’s willingness to hurt people exceeds their willingness to see people get hurt. I want to give them their due on this: They are hearing from their constituents and seeing the mounting problems, and they are trying to do what they see as the responsible, moral thing. They do not believe that holding out will lead to Trump restoring the subsidies. They fear that their Republican colleagues would, under mounting pressure, do as Trump had demanded and abolish the filibuster. (Whether that would be a good or a bad thing is a subject for another column.) This, in the end, is the calculation the defecting Senate Democrats are making: They don’t think a longer shutdown will cause Trump to cave. They just think it will cause more damage.
If I were in the Senate, I wouldn’t vote for this compromise. Shutdowns are an opportunity to make an argument, and the country was just starting to pay attention. If Trump wanted to cancel flights over Thanksgiving rather than keep health care costs down, I don’t see why Democrats should save him from making his priorities so exquisitely clear. And I worry that Democrats have just taught Trump that they will fold under pressure. That’s the kind of lesson he remembers.
But it’s worth keeping this in perspective: The shutdown was a skirmish, not the real battle. Both sides were fighting for position, and Democrats, if you look at the polls, are ending up in a better one than they were when they started. They elevated their best issue — health care — and set the stage for voters to connect higher premiums with Republican rule. It’s not a win, but given how badly shutdowns often go for the opposition party, it’s better than a loss.
Ezra Klein joined Opinion in 2021. Previously, he was the founder, editor in chief and then editor at large of Vox; the host of the podcast “The Ezra Klein Show”; and the author of “Why We’re Polarized.” Before that, he was a columnist and editor
I don’t agree with all of E Klein’s views.
Keith Olbermann nails it well
https://omny.fm/shows/countdown-with-keith-olbermann
I read Keith’s take — it wasn’t all that insightful. Here it is:
By Keith Olbermann
Senators Durbin, Kaine, Fetterman, Shaheen, Cortez-Masto, Hassan, Rosen, and King need to be expelled from the Democratic party and any that mistakenly think they have a chance of retaining their seats must be primaried. Must be.
They are not progressives, they are not pragmatists, they are not even moderates.
They are fools.
Their careers must be ended. Now. Durbin, Kaine, Fetterman, Shaheen, Cortez-Masto, Hassan, Rosen, and King. Now. Done. Forgotten. Let us hear their names no more.
Last night these eight Senators voted to fold, without any pressure, without any bribe, without anything. They voted to kick millions of Americans off ObamaCare in order to reopen and fund the government – for only three months, mind you – in exchange not for magic beans but just the promise of a vote in which they’ll GET magic beans – a vote ON the health care subsidies – IF half a dozen Republicans defy Trump. A vote about magic beans. Which they won’t win.
Their rationalizations were pathetic and suggested their familiarity with the reality of the Senate, of Trump, of the Republican Party, was less than that of the average Senate Page.
What’s worse is, this happens now as the reality becomes more and clear: Trump’s mind is gone. It’s so bad even The Washington Post noticed. It’s so bad The Washington Post even put it on their front page.
He’s hyping weight loss drugs. In The Oval Office. And how he and he alone can bring down their price. And a weight loss patient there to extoll weight loss drugs and say how safe they are and praise Trump’s wonderfulness… collapses. Folds. Drops, slow-motion, like a deflating inflatable tube man at a used car sales lot.
Trump – whose mind is gone – not only doesn’t help the guy on the floor… he’s offended he upstaged him. And then Trump – whose MIND IS GONE – falls asleep. For the second time.
Or as The Washington Post put it: “A Closer Look At Trump’s Apparent Struggles To Fight Off Sleep In The Oval Office” read the Post headline. “A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that the president spent nearly 20 minutes apparently battling to keep his eyes open…” 815 words follow. And four pictures. One of Trump – whose mind is gone – with one eye closed. One with one eye closed and two fingers rubbing it. One with both eyes closed. One where you can almost SEE the snoring.
Even. The Washington Post. Knows It.
Let’s step back from the nuts-and-bolts of the government shutdown to try to process how it was perceived by Trump…whose mind is gone. HE thought it would be a GOOD idea to cut off food stamps so lines at soup kitchens would get longer just as it was getting cold. He thought the correct political move as the Holidays approached was… government-sponsored starvation. He believed that the country would praise him for… gradually shutting down all air travel – including all air travel FOR HIS SUPPORTERS – first for Thanksgiving and then for Christmas and New Year’s.
He thought these were good political moves.
To that slick, elitist YIMBY Ezra Klein–blech!!
Ezra Klein is a Pro-Corporate Housing Monopolist and as such, is an opportunistic bottom feeder. He is a notorious propagandist trying desperately to normalize indentured corporate apartment rental servitude through the Politico-Corporate Manhattanification of the entire country.
Well whatever. He’s also been goading the spineless Democrats to take a stand against Trumpism. United front, Mateo, remember.
Ezra Klein has a great job: podcasterboy Thinker for the New York Times. He is heartfelt, soulful, mentally adept and verbally adroit , preppy adorable and concerned about his children’s futures in a nuclear-armed world that doesn’t read anymore. He is also pretty
conservative at a time when something more is needed than rational chitchat.
Keith Olbermann is a wild guy who got fired or his lefty views and here makes amusing wild arguments about Trump’s mental decline. He is fun to read but easily dismissed as over-the-top. Let’s face it. Frank, a united front of “Democrats” these days is a creation of crepe paper and flour paste not likely to hold up in a soft rain. Those cavers who voted to end the shutdown now deserve to be primaried at the very least. The gesture matters.