By Gary Wonacott
I filed a complaint against the short term rental office and SANDAG described below. But in essence, it says that the STRO pressured SANDAG personnel to publish erroneous data for the number of housing units and population for Mission Beach. For example, in 2020, the census value for number of housing units is 3188 for MB while the SANDAG published data is 3,620. This is a huge difference. This week, I should get back the results from the City’s fraud investigation. It will be interesting either way it goes.
I would like to file a complaint against the Short Term Rental Office with the City and SANDAG for colluding to misrepresent the number of housing units in Mission Beach to maximize the number of short term rental licenses here.
In November of 2022, I submitted the story about the shrinking of Mission Beach and the incorrect basis for the calculation of Tier 4 short term rental licenses. I had an attorney send a demand letter to SANDAG, the STR Office with the City, the mayor and other officials requesting that the correct 2020 census numbers be used. The SANDAG estimates are 3,607 housing units in Mission Beach, which yields 430 more housing units compared to a number that I confirmed of 3,177. I confirmed an analysis that was sent to me by another Mission Beach resident who was in Europe for an extended period of time.
Fast forward to today. SANDAG has released its revised estimates supposedly based on the 2020 census according to a SANDAG employee, Dr. Cindy Burke, letter in response to the demand letter. In fact, SANDAG has released housing units and population for 2020, 2021, and 2022 in their on-line resource, Data Surfer. I communicated my concerns back to SANDAG to employee #1, who I presume passed them along to SANDAG employee #2, who will go nameless. I feel a need to protect their names because #2 is something of a whistle blower.
Employee #2 did a couple of things that I believe revealed his frustration with the process. First, he passed along the final 2020 census numbers, housing units at 3,188 and population of 3,354. The difference in housing units between the 2020 census and the SANDAG/STRO is 419. So, SANDAG/STRO are telling us that the census people missed counting 419 housing units in Mission Beach out of a total of 3,188. This would be a 13.1 percent error in their count.
I am not even going to go into their population numbers for the three years, which, as I stated in a San Diego UT letter to the editor, was inconsistent and ignorant of the history of STRs in Mission Beach. SANDAG employee #2 made another comment about the quality of their published data. He communicated in an email to me that I should contact the STR Office to gain more insight into the quality and source of the SANDAG published data. Effectively he was saying that ownership of the SANDAG published number of housing units and population belonged with the STRO, not SANDAG.
So, apparently, the City is willing to misrepresent the data to ensure not only that their starting number of housing units and therefore STR licenses for Mission Beach is intact, but that there will be an increase going into 2022. Councilmember Campbell now has a dilemma. She can continue to misrepresent the SANDAG data and risk a possible injunction, or correct the earlier mistake and reduce the number of Mission Beach Tier 4 licenses, or change the percentage of STR licenses for Tier 4 from 30 percent to 33.9 percent.
The latter approach would require a change in the ordinance, which opens up a whole new pandora box of problems with the California Coastal Commission, which is now taking a very different approach to STRs in the coastal zone. This is a path that the City does not want to go down.
In summary, apparently, the STRO has pressured SANDAG to falsify their Data Surfer housing units and population for Mission Beach. SANDAG personnel have become frustrated and at least one has turned whistleblower. The correct and only defensible number for housing units in Mission Beach is 3,188, which yields 956 Tier 4 STR licenses.
Gary Wonacott is a resident and community activist of Mission Beach, as well as past president of the Mission Beach Town Council.
Great piece, Gary. Nothing scares them more than real facts. Keep at it. It is a shame that it takes all this effort to get real answers, thank you for the effort.
It appears the citizens of City of San Diego suffer the same problem as Diogenes, we’re still looking for an honest wo/man.
We need the new kid on the block for mayor, because he’s going to go to every department and get to the bottom of what’s going on. Far too many shady deals being made by the so called and supposed to be “leaders”. Vote in all new people when you can. We know what the same-O-same-O has done TO the city of SD. Start with larryturnerformayor.com and Terry Hoskins for Council Dist. 9 to replace elo-rivera.
If you haven’t noticed this season around Fourth of July was a lot less crowded than it has been in past years. I’ve also noticed since I live on the boardwalk that there’s a lot of dark unrented units this season.
The pendulum is swinging towards, less and less short term rentals and vacationers. Part of it is the economy and part of it is the implementation of the short term regulations.
There was a short term party house next to me. It’s a duplex with three bedrooms on one side four bedrooms on the other side and the owner used to advertise 15 people can stay in on each side for $1000 a night, that party house is now just families because of the supervision of these regulations. I’ve been audited 3 times. Supervision is working.
However seems to me that the city has been “talking out of both sides of their mouth! !”
The city capriciously cut out 70% of the potential rentals right from the beginning! How can you swipe 70% of the rentals when you haven’t even given the supervision component a chance to work?! Now you’re only only left with 1089 Short term permits I think it was egregious and there was way too many cuts this Vacation destination town.
SANDAG’s totally bogus population and housing estimates are being forced on other communities too.
As part of the Mid-City Community Plan update, SANDAG reported that from 2020 to 2022, the number of housing units in Kensington-Talmadge declined by -77 (6703 to 6626)* even though by living here I know, for a fact, that 200 units were built between 2020 and 2022.
* file:///C:/Documents/JMCC%20CPU/All%20Community%20Plans/final-combined-appendix_06.21.pdf (page 6)
That means 277 other houses or apartments had to be razed to the ground during those 2 years. Other than a repeat of the Normal Heights fire (1985), I don’t know how that could have happened. I would have noticed that many tear downs. EVERYONE would have noticed. Our community isn’t that big.
I’m not one of those permanently cynical types, but in San Diego something is rotten.
An update. I filed a complaint with the City of San Diego City Auditor. In an amazing twist of events, just kidding, nothing has happened. Here is the latest response from the City.
Hi Gary,
The quarterly reports are issued approximately 2-3 weeks after the close of the quarter. We are now in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 which ends September 30, 2024, so the report will be issued in mid-October 2024.
Gina Rouza, CFE
Fraud Investigator
City of San Diego
Office of the City Auditor
sandiego.gov/auditor
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The response to my complaint came back from the City Auditor. “Didn’t happen.”