Before Trump, his sycophants, and media pundits make too much of the Donald’s “win” in the GOP Iowa caucuses, let’s consider the reality of his really miserable numbers coming out of Iowa.
First of all, we’re talking about a state with only a population of 3.193 million (2021). In comparison, the County of San Diego has a population of 3.286 million (2021). So, our county has more people than the entire state of Iowa. Plus, Iowa is 90% white.
Currently, there are 752,200 registered Republicans in Iowa. Reportedly, 110,298 Iowans caucused. That’s only 15% of the total — which, yes, we know Iowans had to brave a sub-zero Arctic blast Monday night, but historically, was very low; usually the totals are 20% to 30%.
Of those who came out, 51% voted for Trump — roughly 56,250. But what Trump and the pundits are slow to mention is that 49% of those Republicans who braved the cold didn’t vote for Trump — or about 54,045. So, nearly half of those brave souls who had the temerity to come out voted for someone else.
So, nearly the entire spectrum of the press have been announcing Trump’s “historic” win — some of who are even calling the Republican primary for 2024 “over” are basing everything — everything! on the votes of just over 50,000 people. Why the city of Poway in San Diego County has just over 50,000 residents.
This “51%” margin being touted as a game-changer, as a primary-ender is based on numbers so low, that’s it laughable to think the political establishment is both overjoyed and cringing at the same moment over these numbers. They really are miserable.
Here’s the Des Moines Register
Sub-zero temperatures and former President Donald Trump’s dominant lead going into Monday’s Republican caucuses contributed to just 15% of Iowa’s registered Republicans turning out, lagging past caucus participation.
The Republican Party of Iowa reported that 110,298 Iowans braved a sub-zero Arctic blast on Monday night to caucus at 1,657 precincts across the state. The number of caucusgoers comprised 15% of Iowa’s roughly 752,200 registered Republicans. That falls short of the 20% to nearly 30% of Republicans who caucused in recent years, experts say.
Trump, who got 51% of the vote. Among the other top candidates, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis snagged 21% of the vote, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley won 19%. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who snagged 8% of the vote, dropped out of the race Monday night.
Three other candidates — Texas businessman Ryan Binkley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — each garnered less than 1% of the vote. Christie suspended his campaign on Jan. 10, and Hutchinson dropped out of the race Tuesday.
As much as I despise Trump, this article sounds like wishful thinking. Trump is going to easily win the Republican primaries, especially since Haley keeps on shooting herself in the foot (America has never been a racist country???).
He will then likely win the presidential election since Biden continues to become less popular and his approval rating drops.
Ok GML – you predict Trump will be re-elected. So what are YOU doing about it or are you willing to settle for a fascist dictator?
Frank, I vote. I participate in discussions. What else can I do about it? Unfortunately I do not believe I can win the democratic primary (if there was one). I cannot convince a Trump supporter to change their mind, just like I cannot convince a Catholic that the bible is a fictional story.
Well, at least you haven’t lost your sense of humor. My advice: prepare yourself, your family and your close friends and create networks of trust that can survive a Trump fascism. Voting is the very least we can do.
Agreed and I’m terrified of another 4 years with Trump in office. I went into the first four with a positive attitude, it didn’t last very long. This one promises to be much more extreme (e.g. worse).
Back to my original comment, I still feel like this article is just wishful thinking, which maybe isn’t a bad thing…
Actually the article is based on science and not fear. These are actual caucus vote tallies — it’s the mainstream media (most of them) that’s entertaining wishful thinking ‘Trump has already won blah blah blah’.
Isn’t there still a chance for Tina Fey & Catherine O’Hara to get on the ballot?
Parker Posey and Will Ferrell, perhaps? C’mon, now!
I wonder what the headline would have been if Nicky Haley got out some troops to win Iowa? Numbers are down due to bad weather and a known landslide result before the polls opened.
Let’s compare actual vote in IA to national polls. 1 of every 7 republicans voted heavily for Trump.
National polls have usually about 1,500 voter responses. That’s about 1 for every 100,000 voters in the nation.
Looks like IA would be much more accurate.