By Colleen O’Connor
In May of last year, I wrote a column with a rather outlandish prediction:
“A terrifying defeat looms for Trump. As I wrote about the 2020 Presidential race, ‘It is not Biden v. Trump, but COVID-19 v. Trump.’ And COVID-19 won.”
“In 2022, it will not be Biden v. Trump, but Cheney v. Trump. Imagine losing once to a virus and a second time to a woman.”
Yet, here we are. Possibly within reach. Liz Cheney, against all odds, might prevail in her primary election race this coming Tuesday in Wyoming.
Most pundits repeat the available polls that declare Cheney is behind her opponent (the Trump-backed, Harriet Hageman) by 20 to 30 percent. Even CNN predicts Cheney has only a 10% chance of winning.
But, something is troubling the Trump camp.
Not just of the multiple federal, state, and local investigations against the ex-President, or the more than 80 cases that he has lost on his election “fraud/recount claims,” or the recent Department of Justice/ F.B.I. search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property, or even the amazing 10 days of legislative victories the Democrats have scored.
Nor is it because Washington Post columnist, Jonathan Capehart, has elevated Cheney’s status to “Obi-wan v. Trump’s Darth Vader”; or because over 6 million have watched Dick Cheney’s new cowboy-hatted ad calling Trump a “coward” and “not a real man,” (soon to be broadcast on Fox news); but because of the math and the stealth nature of Cheney’s campaign.
She has a fat war chest ~$10 million; Republican support from the Lincoln project; huge contributions from California; and a disciplined approach not just as the January 6th Vice-Chair, but in keeping the in-house polls quiet.
Seriously, the Cheney campaign is a twin to the Kansas rout after Roe v. Wade was overturned. No one saw it coming except those on the ground, in the streets, and talking to people. They, too, kept the polls secret. But, on election day, before any polls closed, their spokeswoman, confidently declared, “We’ve got this.”
The element of surprise trumps all.
So, let’s do the math.
Remembering that the pollsters have often been wrong; that Wyoming allows same day cross over registration and voting (so Democrats and Independents can be “Republicans for a day” and choose Cheney); and that on-the-ground the rumbles continue.
“With that in mind, Johnathan Schechter, a numbers wizard with degrees from Stanford and Yale, decided to examine the Wyoming GOP primary to see if incumbent U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney might be able to beat Donald Trump-endorsed candidate Harriet Hageman for the state’s sole congressional seat.” msn.com
He determined that Cheney would need to find an additional 30,000 votes beyond her core GOP support to retain her seat.”
The conclusion of his detailed analysis is that recently the momentum in voter-registration patterns has shifted in Cheney’s favor. If significant crossover Democrat-to-Republican voting occurs at polling places in the Aug. 16 primary, he wrote, Cheney could reach that 30,000 number.
Even if Cheney is not victorious, Schechter said, “the data on voter registration patterns suggest that the race is going to be far closer than conventional wisdom suggests.”
The data
Some of the trends Schechter identified — such as unprecedented new voter numbers and changes in party registration — have been corroborated by Wyoming Secretary of State records and in WyoFile interviews with a handful of county election officials across the state.
The post Does Liz Cheney have a path to victory? appeared first on WyoFile.
Schechter concludes:
“As of August 1, there had been a 9.4% drop in Wyoming’s total number of Democrats and Unaffliliateds. If that figure even doubles in the final two weeks, and then gets another boost on election day — both of which are historically possible — then Ms. Cheney has a fighting chance of winning.”
My Prediction#1 in May, 2021: Liz Cheney is going to be the first Republican female minority leader after Kevin McCarthy is ditched. She sees the future and it isn’t Trumpism.
I stand by that. Another Master Class in Politics.
{ 21 comments… read them below or add one }
Let’s hope you are right. It is quite disturbing how many people still adore Trump. I never really cared much for Cheney or her ideology, but I certainly have a great deal of respect for character.
Their public stance on Trump is not the only criteria. Trump or no Trump, her challenger is running on the message that Cheney is too busy representing herself rather than the people of Wyoming who elected her. I can’t say whether that holds true, but it’s a reason some may support Hageman even if they are not on board the Trump train. Hageman was also born and raised there.
Personally, I think outside money flowing into state and local elections is always a huge red flag. California dollars need to stay out of Wyoming elections.
I’m a lifelong progressive living in Montana which is right next door to Wyoming. I would never vote for Liz Cheney on her policies. But I admire her courage and commitment to this country and democracy. I suspect the maga idiots are greatly outnumbered but those who still call themselves traditional conservatives tend to keep that to themselves because of the loud voices of the idiots. That seems likely to also be true about GOP office holders. If you think about it, lately the only members who are talking are the hate- and fear-mongering trump sycophants. Everyone else is silent. When is the last time we heard anything from Mitt Romney, for example? Don’t get me wrong, their silence allows the continuation of erosion of not just the party itself, but of the institutions of our government, so they don’t in any way get a pass. TFG has destroyed everything and everyone he has ever touched. It’s not like we didn’t all see this coming as soon as he entered politics. Republicans don’t know it yet, but he has added the party to his list of victims and eventually they will pay the price for allowing that. In the mean time the rest of us have to continue to turn out for the rest of our lives because we outnumber them. We also have to vote all the way down the ballot in every single election and take back our state and local governments. It took them decades to get here. We have to be willing to spend just like that to put a stop to them. We CAN and MUST do this.
Don’t confuse silence with lack of media coverage. Media usually magnifies the outlandish and idiotic voices, regardless of party/issue. Reason and nuance doesn’t sell ads.
Voting along party lines presumes these people all represent the same thing. It’s lazy and ignorant and perpetuates the 2-party system that rewards extremists and disenfranchises the majority of voters. Hell, Trump was a registered democrat up until he ran for office. I will never rely on one’s party registration as a criteria for anything. I’ll vote based on what I know about the candidate. I will switch my registration depending on which presidential primary I think I can have the biggest impact on. And if I didn’t do my homework on a race, I’ll leave it blank.
From Wyoming Public Media. Cheney new radio ad soliciting Democrats to switch…tally as of today…still 5 more days to switch party affiliation.
“Statewide, the number of registered Democrats has dropped 13 percent – nearly 7,000 people – since January, while Republic registrations have risen by more than 11,000.”
SnS: It’s equally disturbing that the right wing daughter chip-off-the-old block of an extreme GOP liar of prodigious proportions and an not-indicted war criminal and mass murderer along with being an obvious corporate Fascist POS; he exhibited the same psychological narcissistic symptoms as Trump if anybody remembers throughout his career starting when he worked for NIXON and Reagan! A Reagan FIRED him for being too extreme! WTF?
His daughter has an absolutely horror of a right-wing GOP voting record that is against pretty much anybody with a smidgen of progressive thinking in their brain wants to see happen; is now the ‘darling’ of many democrats as she’s going to ‘save’ democracy from the return of Trump.
There is something really abhorrent in that thought, like cleaning behind something in your garage and a black widow spider drops onto your hand.
Read this one:
The War Criminal and the Carnival Barker
https://www.commondreams.org/further/2022/08/08/war-criminal-and-carnival-barker
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Darth Vader Dick ‘Shotgun’ Cheney should be in prison. Well, there’s actually a lot of politicians and corporate heads that should be in prison from both faces of the corporate party. But the only ones that go aren’t…the elite. Two-tier justice system is very effective in that, eh?
sealintheSelkirks
Well, Seal, you’re missing the point of what Liz Cheney has been doing lately, which Colleen has been consistently highlighting. She has stood up to Trump and the trumpism that has taken over much of the GOP – but not all. This is undialectical of you, dude. Now, she’s paying the price of her stance – and Colleen, the eternal optimist, is showing us that it is not over yet. You have consistently over the months and years totally downplayed the need of progressives to be in a united front against Neo-fascism, as represented by the trumpists and their finger-ready armed racist militias.
I don’t necessarily disagree with you. Maybe I am just thankful that there is a “lesser of two evils” in this case.
Interesting take. Here’s another one. Summary: She’s going to lose, but she is preparing to run for President.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/11/liz-cheney-concession-speech-00051041
I’m LMAO over progressives in OB critiquing ballot choices in Wyoming, of all places. It’s a Mars vs Venus argument.
And credit goes to Seal for anchoring the far left orthodox thought on this subject. Although I have more in common with Atilla the Hun, I share a lot of your beliefs about the players involved.
Cheney’s final ad. Expects to lose. Warns country.
“America cannot remain free if we abandon the truth. The lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen is insidious. It preys on those who love their country. It is a door Donald Trump opened to manipulate Americans to abandon their principles, to sacrifice their freedom, to justify violence, to ignore the rulings of our courts and the rule of law,” Cheney said.
“This is Donald Trump’s legacy, but it cannot be the future of our nation,” she said.
Well, the last count Liz Cheney is down 57 points to Harriet Hageman.
Bye Bye Liz.
OH MY! Today’s Wyoming Cowboy State Daily’s political writer with CLOSE race prediction….a change for him.
“I want to give some big-time credit to the Cheney campaign for their resourcefulness. Some of the strategies and tactics used, especially here at the end of the campaign, will be studied for years.” Saturday prediction
Harriet Hageman – 60,358
Liz Cheney – 60,258
Peter Navarro says, Liz Cheney will steal tomorrow’s election via absentee ballots.! Something afoot?
https://politicalwire.com and Twitter.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1559210843010736129?s=20&t=wC7cS7z0Ln4BPMOHYF_dRw
SnS: I am SO f**king tired of this ‘lesser of two evils’ crap. The more we ‘vote’ for the lesser evil, the lower the bar drops for the next election because every time we do the GOP puts up an even worse candidate. Which makes the DNC put up their candidate who is even more Republican in outlook that the previous ‘democrat’ candidate. Carter to Reagan to Clinton to Wbush and Darth Vader DICK Cheney that used him to Obama to Trump to Biden is nothing but a downward progression.
It’s a trap that I see no signs of ending or reversing. Like making up a name for the working class who make a bit more money than others of the same class and calling it ‘the Middle Class.’ There’s only two Social Classes in this country but…divide and conquer the overwhelming mass that is the working class so they are not effective in countering the wealthy ruling Leisure Class greed because they are too busy fighting one another.
I think the Democrats have fallen to (in my estimation) pre-1980 Republican levels of thinking and the ‘leadership’ is nearly all neoliberal wealthy elite that has no idea how the rest of us live and, bluntly, don’t give a s**t while the GOP…well we pretty much know where they stand, eh?
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And no, I’m not missing the point, Frank. Not at all. I completely understand what you are trying to say.
I just don’t agree with you since the label ‘progressive’ is used to describe anyone who is a less extreme version of what is currently in fashion in the Republican world.
If Reagan was running for President he’d be on the Democrat ticket in 2024 not the GOP…
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Instead of more of my words, I’m going to cut and paste this quote from last Friday that explains the last 40 years:
“How low we have sunk! From a fairly modern, developed nation with some enlightened laws 30-some years ago, things have deteriorated in almost every respect. George “WMD” Bush’s illegal wars of choice on Afghanistan and Iraq started bankrupting the country, so that now, almost $30 trillion in debt, it is a de-industrialized husk, a wrecked shadow of its former proud self. For that we can also thank Bill “Ship the Jobs to China” Clinton, and the gaggle of dimwit neocons to which HRC belongs. Barack “Evict the Homeowners” Obama didn’t help, nor did Donald “President for Life” Trump. As young psychotic white fascists roam the land, looking for schoolchildren to shoot, Joe “Russian Roulette” Biden flirts with nuclear war and does zilch to rein in an insanely stupid supreme court bend on propelling us back to the 17th century. It’s obvious but needs saying, dystopia is here. But fascist dystopia, ah, that’s another monster altogether. It’s waiting in the wings. And one of its first targets in the U.S. is any emancipation of women. You could call this early stage bio-fascism, rather like early onset national dementia, amirite?”
JSC
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Just how far the apple has fallen from the tree when it comes to Fascist mass murderer daddy? Because she’s now a progressive? Not likely. HW Bush and Wbush who grandpappy was part of the Wall St coup against FDR while supporting Hitler in Germany. Not very damned far when you look at her voting record. I did, it’s public record, and it stinks. It really isn’t much different than daddy’s was.
Is she ‘less’ extreme than Trump? Against Trump? Yes but only about the singular ‘strong man’ dictator form not the essence of what her daddy and his handpuppet Wbush did to this country. What the KOCH brothers have done to this country.
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I don’t have any answers and I think we are closer to a similar 1991 Yugoslavia-type break-up than we care to think about. Remember where I live… But I really REALLY don’t like the extremely violent version of Idiocracy that I see all around me. Will this country come ‘together?’ I don’t see how when one large portion is publicly saying they want to kill the other portion. And they’re stupid with zero historical background or education to formulate reasoned critical thinking to boot. Bad combination, that!
sealintheSelkirks
I’m so tired of lefties complaining of the ‘best of two evils’ argument. It’s not the best of …. it’s a matter of who wants to destroy any semblance of democracy and those who stand by the rule of law. Imagine lefties in Germany in the late 20s complaining of the two evil argument. In fact, they made a fatal mistake; they viewed the Nazis as just another wing of the same bird as the social democrats and refused to fuse an alliance with them. And look what happened. Belittling those trying to do something like that in this country does not help. And BTW, there is no comparison between this country and the former Yugoslavia.
Damn it, seal! I apologize. I misspoke and didn’t mean to imply I was tired of you, but meant to say ‘I’m tired of that argument ….’ You’re always welcome here – we just agree to disagree on certain issues.
It’s okay, Frank, I forgive you! I’ve got lots of “I’m tired of” going on, too. There are so many to choose from, ya know?
As for the ‘leftie’ label, yep I am unrepentant. When I was running concert security crews I had a trademark hat because I was out in the sun so much across 3 day venues in the 1990s/early 2000s. That hat had a few buttons on the band. The political one: blue on white original McGovern one. The surfer one: friend Petey Stewart pool skater/surfer/airbrush artist’s 1980 surfer ‘Star Badge.’ One button says ‘Think! IT AIN’T ILLEGAL YET!’ and another is red with ‘Card Carrying Member of the ACLU. My Star Trek pin is now the insignia of Trump’s Space Force that they outright stole so can I still wear it on my old hat or is it illegal now???? I mean, how stupid are they? Oh wait…
I also still have my SEVA Foundation Hog Farm pin and the DreamFoundation one after I ran two years of their concerts’ security crews.
And of course my treasured (and classic) green on yellow Prop 19 Calif Marijuana Initiative. A little worn, edges chipping the yellow paint off, but I wonder how many of these are still left in the world?
So yep, I am and in this political climate probably considered far left in general outlook since the goalposts have been moved so far rightward in the last four decades and are now in the touchdown zone it looks like. We are in unknown territory and, at the least, it is very very troubling being a Leftie facing people that publicly say they want to kill you.
I still refuse to shut up.
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Did you know that nationwide that murders rise when it gets over 85’F? The higher it gets the more there are. So I guess it’s best to get in ‘discussions’ with people when it’s balmy!
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Been too hot upstairs to be on the computer this week. The highest was 108.2F Wednesday. Dropped to 105.8F yesterday. Today was 100F which is noticeably a little cooler. Still being triple digits a hell of a lot and always above 95’F for about the last 50 days or so. I should be going crazy by now.
No AC in this house and the heat is too much to even turn on the computer. They don’t like 90’F rooms even with fans going. I try to restrain myself with this keyboard when it’s this hot because it’s too hot for me to even deal with much less have the machine melt down…
But then I guess I could be living in the Midwest, eh? Heh heh
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And Cheney lost. This link is Aussie PBS from 8 days ago that is calling the Cheney’s ‘Republican Royalty.’ Sorry dude, I had to freaking gag! But now that there are ‘rumors’ of Liz for president so I give you this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gycEuc0b9Y
At 2:00 the narrator calls the Cheney family “the soul of the Republican Party.” That really is a gag me moment. Well I guess it had that when Lincoln was running it but it sure wasn’t around when her dad was working for Nixon nor VP under W bombing Iraq back to the Stone Age for no reason…
But this is another look at the Cheney Crime Family:
https://www.commondreams.org/further/2022/08/08/war-criminal-and-carnival-barker
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How the Elites Use Identity Politics to Wage Class War
by Eve Ottenberg novelist & journalist
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/08/05/how-the-elites-use-identity-politics-to-wage-class-war/
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Besides Frank, you aren’t going to get rid of me that easily.
sealintheSelkirks
A joke I read: Liz Cheney talking to reporters: “If you think waterboarding is torture you should go hunting with my dad.”
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A cut from an article:
How often has Liz Cheney voted with Trump:
career: 92.9%.
117th Congress: 0
116th Congress: 92.8%
115th Congress: 95.8%
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“A bird with two right wings will only ever fly in a circle.”
That’s what we have in the United States, two right wings forever circling the toilet bowl.
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Cheney supported him for 5 years and now that she’s changed her mind after he’s out of office you’re ready to put her on Mount Rushmore. Can’t even make it up. The only other time she disagreed with him is when he wanted to STOP killing Syrian kids.
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How much she is like her dad. In her own words:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1559737266053996546
For all his flaws, at least Christopher Hitchens had the honesty and the courage to subject himself to waterboarding – and then agreed that yes, it *is* torture.
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Liz Cheney did the right thing at this moment in history. She deserves full credit for what she is doing. It also doesn’t change the fact that she was silent for 4 years up until this moment. Kinzinger is getting much less press but spoke up much earlier.
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Liz Cheney and Donald Trump—The Two Faces of American Totalitarianism
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/08/19/liz-cheney-and-donald-trump-two-faces-american-totalitarianism
a cut:
Liz Cheney’s electoral defeat is not the fall of an American hero. She’s not going anywhere, and she’s no hero. The good she is doing on the January 6 Committee is almost certainly being done for less than admirable purposes.
To ignore that fact is to overlook another front in the war on democracy.
“It wasn’t that long ago that Cheney was one of Trump’s fiercest defenders.”
Cheney is one face of the creeping totalitarianism that has been eroding American democracy for decades (and it wasn’t in great shape to start). Her bitter feud with Donald Trump is best understood as part of an internal battle currently raging within this country’s anti-democratic forces.
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This article is very much how I think on this subject. I might add that the Democrats are also another facet of creeping totalitarianism because they don’t even pretend to fight it. As a matter of fact, the DNC is made up of exactly the same type of Class warriors as the Cheney family in most respects. It’s an internal Class battle in other words. Which mafia family gets to skim the cream of wealth and power…
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And now there is Florida Gov. DeSatan trying hard to replace Trump in 2024. How the hell can we stop these people who are heavily funded by the billionaires who own everything in the US (including the politicians)?
sealintheSelkirks
I started reading the one about Liz Cheney being the soft-edge to totalitarianism and couldn’t finish after the author claimed George Bush was worse than Trump. “The Bush/Cheney body count and list of war crimes far exceeds Trump’s (although that could certainly change should Trump return to power.)” OMG – where has this writer been?
There continues to be a certain faction of the left that continually downplays the threat that Trump and trumpism is and represents.
Dang Frank, there are so many scary monsters that call themselves GOPers and they have done nothing but get worse and more insane my/our entire life. Remember when Goldwater and Nixon was the worse we could imagine or had to deal with? Are they the ‘good old days?’ We know that nearly every mass murderer in the last couple of decades have been right wingers with military-grade weapons…
Levels of magnitude, dude but they all seem to be on the same page if not on the same paragraph if you get my meaning. It can and is happening here.
And I live in MAGATS land surrounded by people who publicly say they want to shoot people who don’t worship him…and I’ve talked with others that live here (enviros, Dems, native tribal folk from the local Rezs, even a few lefties and a few ‘moderate’ old school republicans) and the conversations are rather worrisome as it isn’t just the RWNJ that are armed. This IS a rural mountain area with coyote, wolf, bear, timber rattlers, and human rattlers like meth heads who have committed murder here (a current court case), etc etc. And a hell of a lot of people don’t go outside at night unarmed without very good flashlights and a dog or two…
But every single elected county or town official (and all the cops) are RWNJs so ugly is a real possibility. You heard Sen. Lindsey Graham’s Sunday warning of “riots in the streets” if former President Trump is prosecuted for his handling of classified materials found when the FBI searched his Mar-a-Lago home. He’s threatening a Kristalnache (sp?), a Purge by blackshirt militias and just how frightened are the corporate Democrats at this point of that happening? Enough to back off and let this monster go?
We both realize what will happen if they do that, right? Germany discovered that result in the 1930s…
sealintheSelkirks