California ‘Exodus’ a Myth, UCSD Study Finds

by on July 8, 2021 · 5 comments

in California, San Diego

By Deborah Sullivan Brennan / San Diego Union-Tribune / July 7, 2021

The exodus of Californians forecast in recent news headlines isn’t likely to happen soon, UC San Diego researchers reported in a survey released Wednesday.

The UC San Diego survey queried more than 3,000 Californians, including 295 who completed the questions in Spanish. It found that nearly two-thirds of residents still believe in the “California Dream” of opportunity and prosperity.

“Over the winter there was an increasing narrative we kept seeing in the news media about people leaving California — focused primarily on wealthier Californians, the Elon Musks of the world,” said Thad Kousser, professor of political science at the University of California San Diego and co-author of the study. “But what we were seeing was individual stories. We wanted to look at whether there was data behind those stories.”

Despite the impending loss of a congressional seat and a handful of billionaires, the researchers found no unusual surge in Californians planning to move out of state.

The survey forms part of a larger study led by UC researchers to examine California’s status as a dream state. Researchers mined data from the U.S. census, credit histories, home ownership rates, venture capital investments, internet search records and the Franchise Tax Board to understand which Californians are likely to remain and which are contemplating leaving.

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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }

Jeffeck July 9, 2021 at 8:01 am

Yeah, and all my friends who moved to Texas, the Carolinas, Florida, Michigan, Arizona and New York agree.

Nobody moved.


Peter from South O July 9, 2021 at 1:13 pm

There are always people moving in and out of EVERY State. The article does not say that nobody moved, just that the rate of exodus has not changed in a statistically significant way.


Jan Michael Sauer July 9, 2021 at 7:36 pm

Here in San Antonio an awful lot of the real estate is owned by people that live in California . Many people who move here from California end up renting from them . Despite our long and very hot Summers , most Californians seem to like it here I have noticed . They can afford to vacation back to their families in California quite often so they end up having the best of both Worlds .


Vern July 9, 2021 at 8:43 pm

“… vacation back to their families in California quite often so they end up having the best of both Worlds…”


Gary Huber July 14, 2021 at 5:53 pm

All I know is that my son moved to Texas last month, and the smallest moving vans, one way, ran about $3000. I looked into renting a car, and again, the same very high prices, with most places near his new town unwilling to take a one-way rental. So, we both loaded up our cars to the ceiling, drove to Texas, unloaded, and I turned around and drove back to CA.


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