Mayor Beats Both Harris and Saldana Combined in Apparent Spike in GOP Visitors to OB Rag
In an unusual – but not unknown – twist for an OB Rag poll, it appears that supporters of the main Republican candidate for San Diego mayor – incumbent Kevin Faulconer – swamped the mayoral poll over the weekend, skewing the results. In the final tally for the week-long poll, Faulconer had a higher total than both other major candidates combined.
Kevin Fauloner, in the end, had 59% of the votes, while Ed Harris had 18% and Lori Saldana 13%. Harris is a liberal Democrat and Saldana is a progressive independent.
These results do not reflect the usual political persuasions of OB Rag readers and poll-takers. For example, in one mayoral poll we conducted in November 2015, Faulconer garnered only 26% compared with a combined Democratic candidate vote of 70%.
And in a September 2013 mayoral poll we did, Faulconer received a mere 7% of the vote.
Over the weekend – particularly Saturday night, May 7th, there was a spike in visitors to our website. Usually on weekend days, the OB Rag will receive 800 to 1,000 readers a day. But on last Saturday, there was a spike in readers – to the tune of 1,300 “unique visitors”.
This unusual activity – the spike – and the abnormal and skewed poll results make us think that Faulconer supporters swamped our site in an intentional and coordinated effort to make their candidate come out on top. Of course, we have no direct proof as we cannot in any way identify poll participants, especially since the poll is on the homepage and not in an article.
But we say, no worries. This type of thing has happened before. One time in the recent past, progressives swarmed a poll we were conducting to out vote another liberal candidate.
Perhaps, our Republican reader friends will find one or two other articles of interest, and become engaged in what we’re trying to do here. And return for some of Judi Curry’s restaurant reviews or for some of our reports of the various town councils and planning boards, or for our Newport News accounts of the comings and goings of businesses – stuff no other news outfit does to the degree we do.
In the end, we make no pretense that our polls are scientific. They’re simply – usually – a reflection of the thinking of our readers. This time however – maybe not so much.
Here is the full poll:
As a San Diego voter, if the Mayoral Primary was held today, I would vote for:
Kevin Faulconer 58.6% – ( 92 votes )
Ed Harris 17.83% – ( 28 votes )
Lori Saldana 12.74% – ( 20 votes )
None of the above 3.18% – ( 5 votes )
Don’t know 2.55% – ( 4 votes )
Somebody else 1.27% – ( 2 votes )
Am not voting or cannot vote. 3.82% – ( 6 votes )
Poll total votes: 157
{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }
“Kevin Fauloner, in the end, had 59% of the votes, while Ed Harris had 18% and Lori Saldana 13%. Harris is a liberal Democrat and Saldana is a progressive independent.”
Wanna bet that’s representative of the final tally, +/- 5%, on June 7th? Could it be that you have a broad based audience here?
“These results do not reflect the usual political persuasions of OB Rag readers and poll-takers. ”
I dare say it does; Faulconer is popular among San Diegans of all persuasions and 2016 is shaping up to be an election wit high participation….compared to…
“For example, in one mayoral poll we conducted in November 2015, Faulconer garnered only 26% compared with a combined Democratic candidate vote of 70%.”
The special election. Nobody really cared about that.
OBRag is a “victim” of its own success. There are a lot of people (like me) who read for the local stuff you cover but just don’t comment. Some of us actually read it when wearing ties ;)
While I wouldn’t say the poll results reflect legitimate OBecian sentiments, I’d be hard-pressed to argue that it’s much outside a five percentage-point margin of error on how the citywide vote will shake out next month.
You’ve got a good conclusion, Brian – I’m sure there are a lot of folks who are interested in quality local news (which the Rag provides in spades, despite the frequent and unabashed bias) that don’t necessarily share the core audience’s politics, but still visit for the objective stuff. If I were Frank and company I’d take that as a solid feather for the cap…
As a non-liberal frequent reader, the comment “legitimate OBecian” was a bit off… To live in OB (as we have for 26 years), it is not required to be of liberal mind. We are proud OBecians and are not on the left.
I agree that there are many of us non-leftist who partake in the Rag yet don’t engage. I can totally appreciate the Rag’s commitment to the left and enjoy the comradery and passion of it’s frequent commenters even if I don’t completely agree. You’re doing a GREAT job OB Rag.
The special mayoral election was in February, 2014.
Sorry Ragsters, these are not strong candidates in opposition to the current Mayor.
I expect the primary election will mirror your poll results with Kevin Faulconer getting 60% of the vote.
No strong opposition candidates – point well taken. Ed Harris, while I respect the hell out of him, jumped in a little late. Lori Saldana…I offer no substantive comment, but I’m not hitching my band to that wagon.
Hilarious!
These must be the OBeceans who think it’s OK for Faulconer to either not know, or not care, that 2870 rape kits have remained untested in SDPD storage for over 10 years.
Or perhaps it represents those who don’t mind SDPD officers and dispatchers leaving faster than they can be replaced, and people waiting for minutes on emergency 911 calls when intruders enter their home in the middle of the night.
On a slightly more serious note: clearly, this is great recruitment effort for OBRag- keep it up.
On a totally serious note: the November 2015 poll was NOT a reflection of a “special” election- but I understand the confusion: that’s all Kevin has ever won in San Diego, so… certain people need to think in terms of “special.”
The OB Rag has no way of knowing who took part in the poll, where they’re from, etc, only that as of the last 48 hours or so, 45.5% of our readers come from within the city of San Diego, and another 5.2% are from other cities within the County of San Diego. Of those readers from within the city, we cannot of course tell who came from OB or Pt Loma – just county city break-downs. Bottom line – half of our readers are from within the County, and half outside the County – mainly from other parts of California.
Ha! Based on comments on this site I’d say 95% of the readers are liberals. So yes, the online poll results are definitely fubar.
Not that anyone should take the polls here too seriously anyways, since well, 95% of the readers are liberals.
95 percent of active participants? I’d buy that. 95 percent of readers? I’ll fall back on Brian’s suggestion above that there may be plenty of others who sometimes read, but generally don’t interact with the site.
And yes, I’d agree that political polls on a site that, at its core, is dedicated to furthering a particular viewpoint are useless when it comes to gauging support for diametrically opposed positions. More interesting than the Faulconer vs. Anyone split is the Harris vs. Saldana split, since it seems active Ragsters would most likely back one or another of these candidates unless they’re behind someone even farther toward the fringe. Still, small sample size doesn’t give a whole ton of credit to even these numbers (I’ve been spending too much time on Nate Silver’s site, if it’s not readily apparent)…
The right-wing SD Rostra has reposted this article as they are bemused that we are supposedly “dismayed” that non-leftists took part in our mayoral poll. But we never expressed anything besides pointing out our analysis that GOP supporters swarmed our poll to vote for their guy. We actually said:
But we say, no worries. This type of thing has happened before. One time in the recent past, progressives swarmed a poll we were conducting to out vote another liberal candidate.
Perhaps, our Republican reader friends will find one or two other articles of interest, and become engaged in what we’re trying to do here. And return for some of Judi Curry’s restaurant reviews or for some of our reports of the various town councils and planning boards, or for our Newport News accounts of the comings and goings of businesses – stuff no other news outfit does to the degree we do.
Engaged? Some of us are proud authors of a post on OBRag !!
Oh I don’t know. It’s kinda flattering to think that a bunch of pro-Falconer voters overwhelmed the Rag, but as an old fart, I look at it this way.: Harris is a mouthpiece and rabelrouser for the lifeguard union and Saldana is disaffected democrat who couldn’t get along with those in her own party. For all of Falconer’s shortcomings he keeps his blond hair in place and avoids getting dirty.
This is a weird election cycle; people are pissed off. You can feel it in the air.
We’ve had our eight years of experimentation with a president who called himself a progressive, but he continued to whack people in the middle east like George Bush III.
I suspect this time around that people want to go with what they know, a bland white bread candidate, rather than go with an unknown. At least with Falconer, there’s a perception he’s generally harmless, especially after what’s his name.
Rufus-
I get along fine with the majority of Democrats, just not the ones in leadership who valued winning the Mayoral race in 2012 so badly that they supported and elected a man who was harassing women- even after I joined with other women and advised them of the problem.
If that mans I can’t “get along” with serial sexual harassers and those who protect them- so be it.
The Party leaders and supporters of Filner’s who knew what he was doing refused to heed our warnings. They bullied me into supporting him, and chastised others who came forward with stories of his obnoxious behavior for not being quiet.
We see how well that worked for San Diego.
I prefer to run as an Independent so I can maintain my personal values and principles vs. the “win at any cost” party politics.
Harmless ? Hardly. Faulconer’s bought and paid for by the hotel industry and the downtown crowd. He only does anything for the citizens of this city when it’s a photo op for him.
Hey.. Turns out Kevin Faulconer WON re election with 58% of the vote – the same percentage of the OB Rag poll after all!
{ 1 trackback }