By Carolyn Gramling / ScienceNews / January 13, 2026
The last three years were the hottest on record, a new analysis of global climate data finds. They also mark the first three-year period in which the global average temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels — a threshold associated with increased risks to biodiversity, human health and weather extremes.
“1.5 degrees C is not a cliff edge, but we know that every half a degree matters,” said climate scientist Samantha Burgess at a January 12 press event announcing the report. Burgess is the strategic climate lead for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF, which released the report January 14.
Although 2025 was slightly cooler than the two previous years, averaging 1.47 degrees above preindustrial temperatures, Earth is warming faster than it was a decade ago. The planet is now on track to consistently exceed the 1.5-degree threshold by 2029.
The year 2024 remains Earth’s hottest on record, averaging 1.6 degrees above the preindustrial period, with 2023 still in second place. While the tropics in 2025 were somewhat cooler than in 2024, Antarctica saw its hottest year on record and the Arctic its second hottest. Sea ice at both poles was also at record lows.
The primary driver of these temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, dominated by the burning of fossil fuels, Burgess said.
Tropical air temperatures in 2023 and 2024 were boosted by a strong El Niño. But in 2025, the planet entered a neutral or weak La Niña phase of that climate oscillation pattern, generally bringing cooler temperatures. However, 2025 still ranked as the warmest La Niña on record, Burgess said.
“There were historically high sea surface temperatures throughout 2025, despite the absence of El Niño conditions,” she said.
Extreme weather events exacerbated by rising temperatures — including wildfires, heat waves and heavy rainfall — were widespread in 2025, according to analyses from the World Weather Attribution, a global consortium of climate scientists. More than half the globe saw an increase in days with heat stress, defined as experiencing temperatures of more than 40° C.
“Will 2026 be more exceptional? It’s too early to tell,” Burgess said. But the overall trend is clear, and there’s an 80 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will replace 2024 at the top, she said.
The last 11 years have been the world’s hottest on record. “My expectation is that next year will be 12 out of 12.”
Maybe it’s about time to trashbin the oilman president Wbush’s PR flak Frank Luntz and his incredibly stupid (but brilliant) invention and use of the term ‘climate change’ to describe worldwide destabilization of the atmosphere. The guy is still out there spewing his garbage, and brags about working for over 50 different corporations who, bluntly, are the bad guys in anything to do with fossil fuels because they literally LIED their way into being billionaires by silencing their OWN scientists and censoring the conclusions they came out with in the 1960s/70s. The wealthy knew better back then.
Why not go back and at least call it was then; GLOBAL WARMING? Or Atmospheric Destabilization? Or Climate Chaos? Or Climate Collapse? Because it would be bad for the economy. That’s always the reason to do nothing while the riches pile up in corporate bank accounts…
Anybody else notice that suddenly, quite suddenly as a matter of fact, every corporate-owned news program in the US and quite a few ‘mainstream corporate-funded (read: owned’ or at least self-censoring) scientists’ (like Michael Mann for instance) immediately jumped on that Republican bandwagon with the ‘oh we have plenty of time to change the trajectory of this’ if we use squiggly light bulbs and all drive electric cars (which spew incredible amounts of carbon into the atmosphere in the mining/refining/manufacturing.
For the record, I’ve had a La Nina Pattern in the Pacific every winter here since the Northwest Heat Dome of 2021. Unrelenting, but wait until another El Nino rolls in and watch the temps soar even worse than they already have. So I have no idea what she’s talking about there.
The information is out there. Has been for years and I post links now and then but we have enough on our plates at the moment without a planetary existential crisis to read about also, eh?
I remember when I had 72 species of birds singing, nesting on, or flying over this property-mainly because my neighbors had to do a survey count before their application for ‘forest stewardship’ on their 30 acres could be submitted. Their birds were my birds, too!
I remember when it actually snowed in winter, feet and feet with me out running my 13hp Arien’s 32″ wide rake snowthrower blowing piles out of the way to get in and out. And digging off 4 feet of pile-up on the roofs with a shovel…living in the mountains isn’t all bird-watching and snowsurfing!
I remember when my local snowboarding hill didn’t claim to have 13″ of base around the lodge near the end of January that mostly consists of machine-made icy particle ‘snow.’ And, as everybody knows, ski hills are notoriously well-known for expansively lying about how good it is…like corproate news talking heads are about what’s happening to the climate!
sealintheSelkirks
Please excuse this addition as I forgot to add this link from the English Government:
UK OFFICIAL
Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse
and national security
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0eae719d837d69afc7de/National_security_assessment_-_global_biodiversity_loss__ecosystem_collapse_and_national_security.pdf
And this is what happens in a more personal way; Where do YOU live and just exactly Where does your water come from?
And please, for the sake of sanity, don’t say ‘from the tap.’
The World is in Water Bankruptcy, UN Scientists Report — Here’s What That Means
Using more water than nature can replenish is having catastrophic results.
https://medium.com/the-new-climate/the-world-is-in-water-bankruptcy-un-scientists-report-heres-what-that-means-a39352519023
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No wonder DJT has exited the US from the United Nations, eh?
sealintheSelkirks
This is a bit startling! With the ‘more personal’ link above, this revelation makes what’s coming even worse! A 100 word email uses HOW MUCH?
I have never used ChaGPT
More info on climate and water over-use. AI is poised to…do WHAT?
How many AI queries does it take to use up a regular plastic water bottle’s worth of water?
AI has a hidden water cost ? here’s how to calculate yours
https://theconversation.com/ai-has-a-hidden-water-cost-heres-how-to-calculate-yours-263252
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sealintheSelkirks
So you live at the BEACH! Or at least close to the beach to smell it when you open your window. Being in OB, you are on the eastern edge of the wide Pacific, looking west at a huge expanse of ocean that stretches farther than you really can imagine.
Which of course is just a part of the world-girdling ocean that is 75% of the surface of our planet. No doubt you think is an absolutely beautiful place to be, right?
And our species is doing this to it without paying attention to the radical consequences that we KNOW are happening, can see all around us every damn day. But it doesn’t matter…until one of the repercussions happens to you personally. Then it counts?
Can someone tell me why the term ‘sapiens’ was invented and used to describe us? Dictionary says the second word means ‘discern, be capable of discerning’ and our leaders sure seem to be extremely deficient in this regard.
I read a different science article a few years ago extrapolating that, eventually, the Ocean will be a noxious stinking algae-filled bathtub full of nothing but jellyfish. Sort of like what the west coast of Florida is already getting to be like at certain times of year!!
There are links in this article you should also read.
Ocean Heat Goes Ballistic
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/01/30/ocean-heat-goes-ballistic/
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Chapter 11: The Climate Collapse Presidency
The greatest existential threat humanity faces isn’t hiding in a military bunker or a terrorist cell. It’s in plain sight: the accelerating collapse of our only home’s life-support systems.
A short excerpt from Hartmann’s new book, free to read:
https://hartmannreport.com/p/chapter-11-the-climate-collapse-presidency?publication_id=302288
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sealintheSelkirks
Hunziker again comes out with some rather unsettling reality. Or rather the scientists he reports on certainly have. Remember NASA”s Dr. James Hansen? He’s mentioned in this piece.
Big sigh. This is real, it is happening as I type these words. I’m looking out my windows at green conifer trees and brown dirt with splotchy plots of rotting melting snow scattered around under them because it’s raining in the dead of winter in these mountains next to the Canadian Border. And almost 50”F when it should be no warmer than 20’F in the daytime.
I’m one of those homeowners that have been put into the ‘out of reach’ category for homeowner/fire insurance this article mentions, and that was directly due to what happened in the Paradise Fire more than a thousand miles south of here. Me and a bunch of my neighbors were told that, after decades of paying and never filing a claim, that we were all cancelled. The biologist next door paid 50 years of premiums. I only paid 15 years on this place before being cancelled…
An Unsettling Climate Warning for Homeownership
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/02/20/an-unsettling-climate-warning-for-homeownership/
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Don’t worry San Diego, your local politicians have your backs. They wouldn’t do anything to exacerbate the situation. Right?
sealintheSelkirks
Does anyone have a betting pool going that this year will NOT be the hottest worldwide on record? If so, I’d like to bet that it will be at least within the top three especially due to the expected Super El Nino the science community is expecting to form by this Fall. With that it may be the all-time hottest on record.
‘Every Key Climate Indicator Is Flashing Red’ in New UN Report
“Humanity has just endured the 11 hottest years on record,” said the secretary-general of the United Nations. “When history repeats itself 11 times, it is no longer a coincidence. It is a call to act.”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/un-report-climate
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Eleven years in a row? One is an oddity. Two or three could be a coincidence, but 11 is a damned pattern settling in.
And people at the beach are saying ‘isn’t the weather just lovely?’ Or ‘look, I’m getting a sun tan in March!’
Oh, and I’m guessing that it’s too bad that Lake Mead and Lake Powell on the Colorado River are facing Dead Pool levels, eh? Isn’t that where most of San Diego’s water comes from? And to the farms of the Imperial Valley that grow our veggies and fruits? Hmmmm, may be a problem here…
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And up in my neck of these mountains on the Canadian Border, this is the third winter I never once had to start up the snowthrower. But during the winter four years ago I did have to clear the road to the gate exactly once.
Never needed to put my vehicles into 4wheel drive the last 3 years, either, for that matter. Winter after winter with almost no snowpack to speak of, and I’m hearing from people at higher elevations are starting to see their well levels drop. That’s what aquifers do without snowpack, they start emptying out if there is no recharge going on from trickling snowpack through the ground.
I had a Mountain Bluebird male show up three weeks ago, started building a nest in one of the birdhouses. In February? They’re due to arrive in late April or May.
OB gets 90’F weather, and I get fresh green grass growing in the front yard. This is nuts. Unfortunately, we all can expect it to only go farther out of whack wherever we live. Think ahead and act accordingly if at all possible.
sealintheSelkirks
A short , then one from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; instability is speeding up? Then another short from the Weather Channel saying something we know about already but don’t want to hear:
Climate Change Pushing Our World Into Uncharted Territory
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/earth-is-unbalanced-climate-change-extreme-heat-weather
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Scientists detect a sudden acceleration in global warming
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/03/260309183208.htm
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March Was The Record Warmest In Dozens Of US Cities From Texas To California
An off-the-charts mid- to late-month heat wave made it the warmest March in history for dozens of cities. Here’s where and by how much they smashed their previous records.
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2026-04-01-record-warmest-march-cities-west-rockies-plains
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‘On a whole other level’: rapid snow melt-off in American west stuns scientists
Experts say brutal March heat has left critical snowpack at record-low levels – and key basins in uncharted territory
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/01/snowmelt-american-west?utm
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sealintheSelkirks
Nobody is going to like what this science (our current reality) article is pointing out. Read it anyway. Follow the links it has.
Hey my fellow beach, surfer, and edge of the ocean people. You are NOT ready for this in San Diego.
Severe Climate System Eruption
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/04/13/severe-climate-system-eruption/
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I had the hardest deluge/downpour T-storm Monday afternoon that I have ever experienced in the last 23 years of living in these mountains. It was extraordinary.
I have a metal-roofed house, and the amount of rain that was exploding off of it above my head was exactly like looking out from behind the curtain of a waterfall. For those of you who don’t know, metal (steel) roofs are molded to channel water or slid snow off the roof, but this was falling so fast and hard that sitting here looking out my office window there was nothing but a thick sheet of water cascading down blocking my vision. There was so much water moving so fast that the 90 foot conifers out my window were just blurry and distorted, indistinct.
sealintheSelkirks
Nobody is going to like what this science (our current reality) article is pointing out. Read it anyway. Follow the links it has.
Hey my fellow beach, surfer, and edge of the ocean people. You are NOT ready for this in San Diego.
Severe Climate System Eruption
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/04/13/severe-climate-system-eruption/
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I had the hardest deluge/downpour T-storm Monday afternoon that I have ever experienced in the last 23 years of living in these mountains. It was extraordinary.
I have a metal-roofed house, and the amount of rain that was exploding off of it above my head was exactly like looking out from behind the curtain of a waterfall. For those of you who don’t know, metal (steel) roofs are molded to channel water or slid snow off the roof, but this was falling so fast and hard that sitting here looking out my office window there was nothing but a thick sheet of water cascading down blocking my vision. There was so much water moving so fast that the 90 foot conifers out my window were just blurry and distorted, indistinct.
Then I read the science link this evening (April 13th).
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This latest came up on 24 April. Never any good news. It was 85’F here last Monday on the Canadian Border. In April? WTF! It used to still being catching snowstorms at 49’N latitude!!
Record-Breaking World Heat
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/04/24/record-breaking-world-heat/
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sealintheSelkirks
Now we are being told that a ‘super’ El Nino is starting to heat the Pacific Ocean. In early March the expectation was for it to really get going in maybe September/October. That timeline has been shortened to May which is this month. The ocean is heating up, folks.
But then, so is the land. The stats are in:
The Driest March in 131 Years
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/05/04/the-driest-march-in-131-years/
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This next short article talks about ‘snow cover’ which, in reality, is a sneaky way of not saying that the aquifers that provide an enormous amount of our drinking water are not being re-charged but are draining out. Hence the mention of the Ogalalla that the farmers are draining like a thirsty kid with a mug of lemonade on a very hot day.
But it’s all about the corporate profits of the ski industry, right?
And the Colorado River is…in deep, deep trouble and that should be worrying not only the Basin & Desert states but SoCal, too, which regardless of the number of trees humans have planted, IS a desert state!! Glenn Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam are both heading for dead pool status (they’ve been hovering around it for a few years now), but most people are not paying attention. The government is stealing water to keep the turbines going at Glenn Canyon, and Arizona hit 112’F already. With 4 million people dependent on AC in Phoenix, what happens when the turbines go offline?
Ski and Snowboard Visits in the U.S. Dropped 14% in 2025-2026
https://www.theinertia.com/mountain/ski-and-snowboard-visits-in-the-u-s-dropped-14-in-2025-2026/
When does hoping for a better winter becomes not paying attention to the train coming down the track you are standing on? All weather predictions are based on the PAST, how it all used to work and, as the scientists keep saying, we aren’t living with that reality any longer. We have changed the atmosphere from the Holocene to the Anthropocene and nobody knows how quick or how bad it is going to get but the latest studies are talking about a very scary acceleration of bad news that is turning into a scary reality…
It all goes back to the scientists that were employed by the oil companies in the 1960s/70s being silenced and their studies censored and then buried while the corporate oil barons spent tens of millions to distract the public from even thinking about what we were doing to our planet. Some KNEW what was coming and decided that wealth was more important than a habitable planet. Insatiable greed by the few will quite likely be the downfall of our species if not just our industrial civilization…
And the question posed at the end of this scary article? The answer was: Trump did and the other, more powerful, billionaires that control him. Notice that they keep building hideouts, bolt holes, buying up islands?
sealintheSelkirks
Living on the coastline? Anybody paying attention to the Antarctic? You should be. Since Trump has slashed the budgets for science, and his billionaire buddies have bought up most of the media you always relied on, you aren’t paying attention if you don’t look up independent journalism. That includes thanking OB Rag for being there for others, and posting info that the corporate media will NOT talk about.
Global Warming Icon “Doomsday Glacier” in Trouble
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/05/22/global-warming-icon-doomsday-glacier-in-trouble/
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‘Poised to disintegrate’: Antarctica’s ‘Doomsday Glacier’ is set to lose its ice shelf this year
West Antarctica’s “Doomsday Glacier” is on the brink of losing its ice shelf, further compromising the already melting ice mass and threatening to unleash devastating sea-level rises.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/antarctica/poised-to-disintegrate-antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-is-set-to-lose-its-ice-shelf-this-year?utm
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But since we’re in the Northern Hemisphere (even though what happens at the South Pole WILL affect us), this one is probably more in our thoughts:
Why an immense marine heatwave off the US west coast has alarmed scientists
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/22/marine-heatwave-west-coast?utm
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Then this from a science site I pay attention to:
RECORD HIGH SST FOR TIME OF YEAR
On May 22, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E, inset also shows anomalies) sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year.
Sea surface temperatures peak twice each year: in March/April (when it’s Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it’s Summer in the Northern Hemisphere).
There were La Niña conditions in early 2026, yet 2026 SST were close to and at times exceeded the record high SST reached in 2024, which was an El Niño year.
From now on, there will also be an El Niño in 2026. According to NOAA, there is 82% chance of an El Niño in May-July 2026 and 96% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.
Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3.5°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño and will be the strongest El Niño on record.
The immensity of the danger justifies keeping a close and watchful eye on the data, on research, on forecasts and projections.
From the post ‘Ocean heat threatens sea ice’, graphs etc also at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/05/ocean-heat-threatens-sea-ice.html
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sealintheSelkirks
Does anyone think that Trump had known about this research? No, he’s too busy enriching himself; it’s the vicious gangsters in suits from the so-called ‘Heritage Foundation’ and other far right-wing Republican extremists and so-called ‘religious’ groups that have free rein to search out and destroy anything and everything that informs us of science and reality. It’s a blind Death Cult, and they are dragging us all into the pit with them.
Just how far do they want to drag us backwards into the darkness? 1830s? 1750? Burning witches like in the 1600s? Or maybe the Black Death of Europe in the 1300s where our Euro ancestors waved perfumed objects in front of their faces to protect them from the ‘bad air’ that wiped out half of Europe? The 1100 or 1200s when ravaging hordes of religious fanatics waded through rivers of blood in streets like Hegseth fantasizes about with his giant ‘Crusader Cross’ tattoo on his chest?
I don’t think they even know how far back they want to shove civilization, but they are certainly accomplishing the destruction of so much they don’t understand but definitely dislike. The ‘under-eductated’ are going to turn their own descendants into serfs and peasants again… And the wealthy will still be at the top of the dung heap.
The latest move below:
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Tump administration to remove 900 deep sea monitoring instruments that would have studied the collapsing Atlantic current
The Ocean Observatories Initiative has been collecting data on physical, chemical, geological and biological conditions in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for the past decade
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/rivers-oceans/tump-administration-to-remove-900-deep-sea-monitoring-instruments-that-would-have-studied-the-collapsing-atlantic-current?utm
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Now can you tell me what the hell this governmental gobblygook nonsense means:
“In a statement, an NSF spokesperson said the intention was not to cancel the OOI but to transition to a “nimbler approach to prioritize support for evolving scientific priorities and emerging technologies, as well as smart lifecycle management within its research infrastructure portfolio.”
My take on this ‘official’ statement? We will do NOTHING because Global Warming is all a hoax says our dear leader Trump….does that sound about right?
sealintheSelkirks
My, is this June heating up fast or what? Everywhere it seems, across the Western US. And that damn El Nino has definitely kicked in already from what I’ve been reading. That happened quicker than expected, and the scientists who were warning us about Sept/Oct are a bit surprised.
Up here is the same as my mountain area suddenly popped right up to 90’F afternoons again, after having a few of those days show in May and one in April (which just didn’t used to happen 20 years ago). Fires are breaking out all around according to the Watch Duty the fire ap that my friends that work fire pay attention to. Today a 30 acre blaze down south, Spokane Valley, started with 30 acres becoming involved very quickly. Within the hour it went to over 300 acres. Not a good start to fire season. There are roughly 8 fires burning locally in a big circle around me. Fire crews are stomping on them quick.
And my ocean ‘hot spot’ that is off the NW coast continues to grow menacingly, just like it did in 2021 when millions of sea creatures died and washed up on the beaches after it reached ridiculously high temperatures. Then the air temp went to 120’F and things got very scary.
The very unusual cold spot in the AMOC between North America and Greenland seems to be sticking around, too, throwing another curve into the prediction of weather. AMOC is slowing down, folks, and nobody knows how that is going to affect Europe or if it will grow bigger. The third link below is on that.
As always, all links are troubling.
Trump BLINDS National Weather Service Just As Hurricane Season Kicks Off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMIXLbpCEMY
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Wake Up and Face the Heat!
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/06/12/wake-up-and-face-the-heat/
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The Worst Climate News of the Year Is a Patch of Cold Water
A weakening AMOC left one blue scar on the map — and its consequences run pole to pole
https://medium.com/southern-winds/the-worst-climate-news-of-the-year-is-a-patch-of-cold-water-3c905f8f7cb0
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Live market odds: Are we heading for the hottest year on record?
El Niño’s development will likely play a huge role, too.
https://weather.com/2026/06/15/news/climate/will-2026-be-the-hottest-year-on-record
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sealintheSelkirks