Michael Smolens: San Diego Voters Are Not Happy – Which Could Help Incumbents

By Michael Smolens / San Diego Union-Tribune / Feb. 18, 2024

San Diego’s electorate is not happy with the way things are going in the city.

The recent devastating failure of the city’s flood protection infrastructure is only the latest example of the municipal government’s seeming inability to do its job.

Homelessness continues at crisis levels despite many actions and much talk about reducing it.

Audits conclude the quality of city roads has dropped sharply and there’s no comprehensive funding plan to fix them.

The legal quagmire surrounding the city-owned 101 Ash St. building is not only a reminder of that boondoggle, but other costly city real estate debacles stretching over two mayoral administrations.

A grand notion of a sweeping redevelopment of the Civic Center area, including the Ash Street tower, appears to have faded for the time being.

Historically underserved communities still take the brunt of the fallout from the city government’s shortcomings, despite yearslong pledges to reverse that.

Meanwhile, City Hall’s push to increase housing density and allow high-rises in neighborhoods certainly has support. But the policies have also triggered a backlash in some of those communities and sparked activism for political change.

Private political polling in recent years has suggested more San Diegans than not think the city is heading in the wrong direction. La Prensa wrote about one poll in February 2023 that showed 59 percent of those surveyed said the city has “gotten off on the wrong track” compared with 36 percent saying it is heading in the right direction.

A poll this year circulated among supporters of Mayor Todd Gloria concludes that view among voters continues, though the margin has narrowed: 44 percent (wrong track) to 34 percent (right track).

There is no surprise here. Campaign polling numbers on that trend have been “upside down” for the past couple of years, according to two people who agreed to discuss the results on the condition of anonymity.

So, does all this mean a rough election year for incumbents? A bumpy ride, perhaps, but most seem poised to survive in November.

Three of the five San Diego City Council members on the ballot have no opponent at all. Those who do have far more campaign money and institutional backing (from labor, business, political parties) than their challengers.

Earlier this month, David Garrick of The San Diego Union-Tribune laid out the significant fundraising disparities between City Hall incumbents and their challengers.

This isn’t to say incumbents can’t or won’t be ousted. One should never underestimate an unhappy electorate and potentially effective grassroots campaigns. But all of these incumbents, including Gloria, appear the odds-on favorites at the moment.

Given the laundry list of problems facing the city and the apparent mood of the electorate, it would seem incumbents should be more threatened. There are reasons they aren’t.

First of all, the city still does a lot of things right. Most voters aren’t terribly affected by the aforementioned shortcomings, if at all. Libraries and recreation centers are open, trash is picked up and streets, while they may be in a declining state overall, most don’t have gaping potholes.

Dedicated city employees — lifeguards, police officers, firefighters, parks workers and others — mostly perform their jobs well, despite widespread understaffing at the city.

Further, San Diego’s a great place to live — if you can afford it — and it’s beautiful. The city for years has had a very low crime rate, the economy is healthy and unemployment is low.

While city officials may have little control over those factors, save public safety, those things may offset some of the negative feelings among voters.

There’s evident dissatisfaction across the country about the nasty tone and tribalism that has infected national politics. It’s hard to say whether that colors voters’ views of local government in San Diego, but it may help shape the outlook of the electorate.

With that context, it’s worth noting a Gallup poll in September regarding governmental institutions showed Americans had the most faith in local government (67 percent) and the least in Congress (32 percent).

Further, voter frustration with government doesn’t always extend to the individual officeholder, or at least as much. A SurveyUSA poll last month had Gloria’s approval rating at 47 percent positive and 38 percent negative. (The recent private poll had a similar spread but with lower figures.)

The power of incumbency goes beyond the advantages in campaign resources. The mayor and council members and their staffs are a regular presence in the community, often trying to take care of problems and provide services to constituents.

Of course, when things go bad, like they did during the flooding, they have to face the music — as Gloria has.

Nevertheless, that’s tough to compete with.

Then there’s another big one: term limits. It may seem odd suggesting that a law forcing incumbents out of office after two four-year terms is an advantage for them.

But that’s an incentive for some would-be challengers to wait out a second term and run for an open seat rather than face tough odds of defeating an incumbent.

The biggest governing challenge — and likely greatest political weakness — facing Gloria is homelessness. The city has opened up more shelter and housing options, but it hasn’t been enough to keep the situation from getting worse.

Given the depth of public concern, the SurveyUSA poll regarding Gloria’s performance on homelessness wasn’t so bad: 8 percent rated him excellent, 19 percent good, 35 percent fair and 30 percent poor.

The opening of safe sleeping sites by Gloria was a popular move, with 75 percent supporting the policy.

Still, when voters don’t think things are going well, that can be a concern for an incumbent’s re-election chances. But it’s something of an abstract notion until other candidates get in the race. A choice often changes things.

Rep. Scott Peters, D-San Diego, and former Republican Mayor Kevin Faulconer last year considered running against Gloria. Instead, Peters decided to seek re-election and Faulconer is running against Democratic county Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer.

If either had taken the plunge, this year’s mayor’s race would be much different than it is shaping up to be.

Gloria’s highest-profile opponents are social justice advocate Geneviéve Jones-Wright, a Democrat, and Larry Turner, a police officer who does not belong to a political party. The SurveyUSA poll had Gloria with double-digit leads over each. More than a quarter of the voters were undecided.

Dynamics could shift, of course, if either Turner or Jones-Wright makes it to the November general election.

But at the end of the day, “right track/wrong track” isn’t on the ballot.