Will Both City Council District 2 and County Board of Supervisors District 4 Go Blue in November?

by on June 6, 2018 · 8 comments

in Ocean Beach

Thoughts on Some Primary Results and Their Meaning for the Beach

The June Primary is over, the dust is settling and the pundits are buzzing. What does it all mean? Well, we’re going to take a crack at the question by looking at a few race results and how they affect residents of Ocean Beach and Point Loma and other nearby communities.

And there is some good news. Consider these ….

District 2: Zapf vs Campbell in November

First of all the results show Lorie Zapf is in a run for her political life for the City Council District 2 seat. Incumbent Lorie Zapf (45%) will go against Dr Jen Campbel (2l%), a Democrat, in November.

Campbell, a relative new-comer to San Diego politics, had enough of a base in Clairemont and within the district’s traditional Democratic Party enclaves to propel her past Democrats Bryan Pease (18%) and Jordan Beane (9%). Of course, it’s more complicated than that.

Pease has a base in Ocean Beach and within the local environmental movement, and Beane has one within Pacific Beach but neither had a sufficient turnout to make the run-off.

No matter, Zapf needs to be worried.

As just one measure, add up the totals for the Democratic candidates and you get 48%; add GOP candidate Kevin Melton’s 2% to Zapf’s and you  get 47%. Plus, more Democrats tend to vote in the General Election.

So, the November race promises to be a close one with huge consequences: if District 2 went blue, the Democratic majority on the City Council would be sufficient to over-ride mayoral vetoes. It also could portend the end of Zapf’s political career. Or not.

With a huge war chest, perhaps Lorie could earn her exceptional 3rd term if the Republican establishment, the Lincoln Club ($300K about to be delivered by the Lincoln Club) step up for her.

Fletcher vs Dumanis for County Supervisor

The good news was the race for the District 4 County Supervisor seat – which includes OB, Point Loma, and most of the city. The seat could very well go Democratic and help end the Republican stranglehold that has been on this seat for literally decades.

Nathan Fletcher (29%) was finally able to win in an election as a Democrat – and his totals actually eclipsed Bonnie Dumanis’s (28%) – a Republican, so both are headed for a showdown in November. Lori Saldana garnered 22% and Omar Passons 17%.

Again, just a rough measure, but look at the Democratic and Republican totals. The Dems percentage total is an astounding 68%, while the GOP total (adding Ken Marlbrough’s 4% to Bonnie’s) we get 32%. That’s a 2-to-1 Democratic advantage in the District. But, again, it’s complicated.

Doug Porter at San Diego Free Press had this to say about this key campaign:

A major victory for the Democratic party. A major defeat for the Lincoln Club and Micky Kasparian’s Working Families Council.

The real contest here was between Fletcher and Saldaña. Expect the GOP and their friends in the Lincoln Club to continue their scorched earth campaign against Fletcher in the hopes of depressing voter turnout enough so Bonnie Dumanis has a chance.

Both Fletcher and Dumanis are coming off failed mayoral bids, both have their baggage – so the upcoming campaign will be spirited. Voice of San Diego analyzed:

[Fletcher’s] network of Democratic and labor supporters worked hard enough – and spent enough – to put him into first place in late Tuesday results.

Fletcher methodically built alliances with key Democrats. Those relationships and Fletcher’s work on crucial Democratic causes helped him secure endorsements and cash from the county Democratic Party and most local unions. The party alone sunk more than $880,000 into his race.

The influx of cash from the party and unions … helped Fletcher survive an avalanche of attack ads financed by the Working Families Council, Dumanis’ campaign and the right-leaning Lincoln Club.

But bottom line, the Democrats  have a very good chance to take this important seat – and break the GOP monolith.

So, both the District 2 City Council seat and the County Board seat representing the beach could go blue in November.  This is definitely good news.

For an overall tally and more thoughts on how the County voted in the Primary, go to Porter’s update.

 

{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }

Valerie June 6, 2018 at 3:59 pm

Fletcher vs Dumanis. This is what South Park was talking about when they said, vote for a turd sandwich or a giant doosh. ugh.

Reply

Tyler June 7, 2018 at 9:54 am

Aside from his changing of parties, what specific issues/priorities from Fletcher make him “just as bad” as Dumanis?

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Frank Gormlie Frank Gormlie June 6, 2018 at 4:49 pm

Bryan Pease wrote: “OB Rag —

Our San Diego City Council District 2 race is too close to call! Only about 75% of the votes have been counted, as there are still several thousand absentee and provisional ballots being tallied. Out of over 18,000 counted so far, we are only about 500 shy of making it into the runoff with the Republican incumbent instead of Dr. Jen Campbell, who outspent us nearly 2 to 1. None of the other four candidates received even half the number of votes our campaign did.”

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kh June 6, 2018 at 5:01 pm

Also a major defeat for George Soros’ purchased candidate, Genevieve.

Thanks for all the money George, now beat it!

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unwashedwallmartThong June 6, 2018 at 7:22 pm

I reckon the Koch Bros should have donated more dark money into the race, also.

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JK June 8, 2018 at 12:01 am

Ken Marlbrough is Dem

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Frank Gormlie Frank Gormlie June 8, 2018 at 10:52 am

Thanks – that’s even better news.

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NOT DUMANIS June 9, 2018 at 3:42 pm

Despite the distrust many people feel towards flip-flopper Nathan Fletcher, we will take him & trust that he, along with his feisty wife and all her labor union money, will be the team that finally puts that irrelevant Dirty Dumanis out to pasture for good. Bonnie has a fight on her hands with Fletcher and I, for one, am hopeful this contest will be the one where the”public servant” job trough she has milked for so long is firmly shut in her face for the last time.

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