Eighteen US service members have died so far in Trump’s war with Iran and 420 have been wounded. These mounting casualties come with escalating attacks and strikes by both sides. Iran declares it is fighting a “full-scale war.” And Trump threatens to intensify bombings for every American killed. Bridges and ports are struck. The price of oil shot up as did gasoline of course, and stocks fell. (Closing on 300 points Monday.)
The big question as the conflict looks to inflame the whole Middle East region is whether negotiations between the two sides are continuing or not, and if not, is there a chance they can continue?
The US has just bombed Iran for the 9th day / night in a row in a dramatic shift in the four and half month old war after weeks of a so-called cease fire under the Memorandum of Understanding. Iran has retaliated — not in striking U.S. targets but in going after countries that host US military personnel and facilities, like Jordan and Bahrain and other Gulf allies for the U.S. Some sources report that diplomats said talks to de-escalate were continuing.
The Guardian reports:
Iranian media reported strikes around Tabriz, believed to hold underground missile bases, as well as Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power plant. The US military said it had struck “military command centers, air defence and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and communications networks”.
Iran launched attacks against Bahrain, which hosts the US navy’s fifth fleet, and Kuwait, in addition to striking tankers in the strait of Hormuz, which carried a fifth of global oil and gas supplies before the war. Bahrain said its air traffic systems were damaged by the strikes, but that traffic was not affected. …
As mentioned, Jordan was also attacked by Iranian missiles and drones. Three military service personnel were killed in an Iranian attack on a Jordanian airbase on Friday, July 17.
Al Jazeera covered some of the background of the moment:
The MoU triggered a 60-day negotiation period. While ceasefire negotiations remained precarious, hostilities largely subsided until July 7, when the latest crossfire began. The US and Iran have traded attacks since then. On Sunday night, the US announced it had concluded its ninth consecutive night of attacks against Iran. Iran hit back with ballistic missiles hitting US transport planes at Aqaba airport in Jordan.
The tit-for-tat attacks came as the region lurched back towards a total war despite an interim peace deal agreed last month. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) to halt attacks and open the strait is more than halfway through a 60-day implementation period that was intended to provide breathing room for diplomacy.
Shipping in the strait has slowed to a trickle as a result of the fighting and the price of oil reached its highest in a month, passing $90 (£67) a barrel, exacerbating the global energy crisis.
There is still hope despite the Houthi blockade of Saudi ports announced today, and threats and counter-threats are thrown back and forth across the region.
Amidst all of this, an Iranian official told Reuters that mediators gave Iran a proposal for a 10-day-ceasefire to find ways to revive the MoU, according to Al Jazeera.
The proposal follows a statement by Iran that diplomacy with the US was continuing despite the fighting, without giving details on the content of the discussions.
Iran’s interior minister was expected to travel to Islamabad on Monday, Agence France-Presse reported.
The Iranian foreign ministry’s spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said at a press conference in Tehran: “We have been informed by mediators, we have received messages – without going into details – but the main point is that the diplomatic apparatus has been active in recent days and ideas have been conveyed to us by certain mediators.”
Hours earlier, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said the US was still open to negotiations with Iran, but that “it has to be real”.
“We’re going to continue to respond. If the door opens to diplomacy – if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations – that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.
Mediators including Qatar and Pakistan have continued to speak to both sides during the current round of escalation in an attempt to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table.
The on-again-off-again war, hosted by DJ Trump, threatens now to spiral into much more of a regional conflict. The Houthis, southern Lebanon, Saudi Arabian denouncements of Iran — the list grows daily — of different countries and parties getting riled up.
Yet there are signs of restraint (unbelievably, yes) but for the first time in more than a week, Trump had the military strikes avoid civilian infrastructure, and Iran avoided targeting US Naval personnel and facilities (like ships and bases) and has avoided so far in attacking Israel.
With the Midterms approaching and American support for Trump’s war lower than ever, Trump’s decreasing numbers of options still include American boots on the ground. Yet, the Iran war is America’s least popular since polls began.
