The Last House Races Too Close to Call

By Paige Austin / Patch Staff / Wed, Nov 13, 2024

Republicans are one win away from taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives, giving the party control of all branches of government, and liberal California may very well be the state that delivers it to the GOP this week.

Though NBC News declared Republican victory in the U.S. House of Representatives Wednesday and Data provider Decision Desk HQ projected Republicans to win the house, the Associated Press and other major outlets have not called it yet. That’s because a handful of races, including three in California, remain too close to call.

The Republican chances of victory in the House depends on still uncalled races in Arizona’s District 6 in the Tuscon area, Iowa’s District 1, Alaska’s District 1, and California’s Districts 13, 45, and 47.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Associated Press had not declared a victory in Orange County District 47, but on Tuesday night, Republican Scott Baugh conceded the race to Democrat Dave Min.

“It has become clear that despite running a strong campaign, connecting with voters, and mobilizing an incredible volunteer effort — that effort is going to come up a little short,” the former assemblyman said in a statement after Min’s lead increased to 50.9%-49.1%, 164,372-158,460

“I am grateful to an outstanding campaign team and the most dedicated supporters any candidate could ask for. I’m appreciative of the voters that supported me and even those that did not, and most of all I am grateful for my wife, Wendy and my son, Jackson.”

This week, the Inland Empire’s District 41 incumbent Republican Rep. Ken Calvert declared victory, although his opponent Will Rollins has not yet conceded the race. However, the Associated Press called it for Calvert Wednesday afternoon. Calvert held an 8,123 vote lead with an estimated 13 percent of ballots outstanding.
California Secretary of State vote count as of noon Wednesday.

In California, that leaves two additional races still too close to call in Orange County and the Central Valley on Wednesday afternoon.

In Orange County’s District 45, Republican incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel holds less than a 1 percent lead in the race. With every new batch of ballots counted since election day, Democratic challenger Derek Tran inches closer to her. The Associated Press estimates 10 percent of the vote remains uncounted, making the race too close to call.

Lastly, in California’s Central Valley, District 13 also remains too close to call. Republican incumbent Rep. John Duarte holds a two point lead, but the Associated Press estimates roughly 30 percent of the vote remains to be counted. Democratic challenger Adam Gray is within striking distance if the ongoing count of mail-in ballots swing his way.

Outside of California, that leaves races in three states that could still swing the outcome.

According to the Associated Press, 99 percent of votes have been counted in the Iowa District 1 race, and Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks holds a lead of about 800 votes. A recount is anticipated.

In Arizona, incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani holds a 2.2 percent lead, but an estimated 10 percent of the ballots remain to be counted, according to the Associated Press. The race remained too close to call Wednesday. Notably, in that race, a Green Party candidate is poised to play spoiler to the Democrats, garnering more votes than separate Ciscomani from Democratic challenger Kristen Engel.

The final House race still to be called by the Associated Press is Alaska’s District 1, where Republican challenger Nick Begich has incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Petola on the ropes. As of Wednesday afternoon, he held a 9,550-vote lead, and the Associated Press estimates that 9 percent of the vote remains to be tallied. It is another race where third-party candidates garnered enough votes to bridge the gap between the Republican and Democratic front-runners.

City News Service contributed to this report.