Quarter-Term Report Card on 2021 Predictions
By Colleen O’Connor
In a column, written in February, a list of predictions on “both sides of the border,” was posted, with a one-year expiration date. This is the quarter term status on those U.S. predictions.
First, a footnote about last year’s prediction that Mitt Romney would become the “conscience of the Senate.” Recently affirmed with 2021 JFK “Profile in Courage” award for his vote to convict former President Donald Trump. The first ever Senator to vote to convict a President of his own party.
On to this year’s mid-term contenders.
#1 on the list, “Don’t Cry for Liz Cheney.”
Prediction: Liz Cheney is going to be the first Republican female minority leader after Kevin McCarthy is ditched. She sees the future and it isn’t Trumpism.
At the time of this February prediction, Cheney defied Trump on mask mandates and voted to impeach him, while beating back calls to “resign” her post as the #3 in House GOP leadership.
Her response “I’m not going anywhere.” An outraged Trump demand, primary challengers with funds to defeat her, and launched loyalists to demand she resign, be “censored,” and demoted.
Not only, did Cheney not resign, she also beat back the attempts to deprive her of the #3 leadership slot and any rebuke from the state party. Remember, Cheney won her 2016 primary House seat in 2016 by 18 points, another primary by 46 points, and her closest general election by 33 points. She elevated her stature, stood her ground, and has raised more campaign funds than any member of Congress except Schumer.
Cheney, like Romney, never wavered on Trump’s complicity in the January 6th insurrection.
“The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.”
While the prediction of Cheney’s inevitable ascent remains on hold, the news of a DOJ investigation into the actions of Rep. Matt Geitz (the pro-Trump leader of the “impeach Cheney” chants) on allegations of Geitz’s “sex trafficking of underage girls,”) has only helped her and silenced Trump. A rare feat. Now, it is Rep. Geitz facing calls to resign.
And Minority Leader, McCarthy’s statement that “Everybody in the U.S. has some responsibility” for the Capital riots, has greased the skids for his probable replacement.
Mid-term prediction grade. Still pending, but fast moving toward fruition.
All of which moves the #2 and #3 predictions into near fait accompli status.
#2. The impeachment of Trump is a win-win for Democrats.
Trump’s conviction would be a win for the rule of law. His acquittal at Republican hands guarantees the Democrats will picked up more seats in 2022.
Status: First sentence is true. Second sentence remains in play.
#3. Trump-ism is radioactive. Economic boycotts, internal GOP strife, and more damaging court cases and investigations will infect all things Trump.
Status: Already has.
# 4. Controversial Vogue cover of V.P. Harris will become a classic.
Status: Takes more years.
On to #5
5. Majority Senate Leader, Schumer, will be a surprisingly strong legislative leader. He will check Biden’s “come together” moments, while delivering legislative victories for Democrats via the reconciliation process. Case in point, H.R. 1 reforms now S. 1. Meaning top priority for government reform.
Status: Already won big with $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan; using reconciliation. Next victory on multi-part Infrastructure plan a given. Plus, new parliamentary ruling allows multiple budget reconciliation bills that give Schumer even more power to ignore the “filibuster.”
6. Mother Nature will drive the agenda. Not just COVID-like epidemics and vaccinations that defy quick remedies, but the massive economic damage of climate changes will push the Green agenda ahead and pursue technology’s villains.
Status: Green agenda already included in draft infrastructure bills.
As author Kirkpatrick Sale writes in The Collapse of 2020, the U.S. faces “an economic disaster that would render the dollar worthless, causing a depression worse than the one in 1930; a rebellion of the poor against the monied; and a significant number of environmental catastrophes.”
Thus, Pelosi’s motto “Move fast and fix things.”
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