Here are some sobering graphs and numbers on county COVID-19 cases from the San Diego County health department and one from the San Diego Union-Tribune. Does that curve look likes it flattening out?
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by Source on April 29, 2020 · 7 comments
Here are some sobering graphs and numbers on county COVID-19 cases from the San Diego County health department and one from the San Diego Union-Tribune. Does that curve look likes it flattening out?
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{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
I’m not trying to downplay the significance of the COVID threat but I think it is also important to have a perspective. The first graph shows 3,314 cases in San Diego County. The county has a population of 3.338 million people. That calculates to one tenth of one percent of the county’s population.
On our best day we tested around 3000 people out of a population of over 3 million. Where testing has been more controlled and scientific in nature a large number of asymptomatic positive cases were detected. We are not doing testing of the general population, so we do not have any freekin’ IDEA of how many people have this disease in SD county. Forget any margin of error discussions, or percentage of faulty positives and negatives; the number of tests is statistically insignificant at this point in time.
We do not know the denominator.
The graph says 3,314 confirmed cases. Even if there are 10 times as many people actually infected but not sick, that’s still one percent of the county. Like I said, not downplaying it, just providing some perspective that some might find comforting.
It could be 50 thousand, or 500 thousand. We Do Not Know!
SD Mayor – since there has been no flatting of curve, these charts are confusing. What to do, what to do? I know, we should open the beaches!
The charts are not at all confusing. They could be better labeled. The first one should have a legend showing that the little dark bars at the bottom are the daily cases diagnosed and the big, tall bars are the cumulative totals. The “curve” to look at is the one created by the small dark bars, not the big curve of the cumulative totals.
My point was there were more scientific reasons to keep the beaches closed rather than trusting people to “Do the right thing”.
After watching videos from around the state at open beaches, the Governor closed all of them today.