Will San Diego See a Blue Wave in Red Districts?
By Doug Porter / San Diego Free Press
Campaign financial reports were filed recently, and it’s worth a look at this time to see who’s looking to be a serious contender in the five contests for the House of Representatives in San Diego.
The really juicy stuff–contributions by Political Action Committees, etc., revealing the special interests backing candidates–typically come in the final months before the election, so we’ll have to wait for numbers.
Yesterday’s column included information on City and County campaigns, which is sourced differently than contests for federal or statewide office. We will be publishing a voter information guide in early May with details on candidates in many San Diego contests.
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Trump’s parade? Via Twitter
Two things to watch as Field Marshall Trump of the Bone Spur Brigade continues into his second year: the investigation into purported wrong-doings by Special Counsel Robert Mueller and voter turnout in the 2018 elections.
There is nothing we can do about Mueller. Indictments will happen (or not) when they’re gonna happen. In this era of market-driven morality, corruption is now a virtue. Unless the President gets exposed as a closet socialist, the GOP leadership will stand by their man.
This leaves voter turnout as the best option and there’s good news to be had on that front. A majority (55%) of new voter registrants in California cited “Motivated by national Issues, Donald Trump, Congress” as one of the reasons for registering.
From Capitol Weekly:
We at Political Data have just updated files from all 58 counties and there are relatively high registration trends from the past 12 months that could be a sign of an increased interest in voting.
Overall, the total number of registrations processed by California counties is at 1,815,182, more than double the 875,763 average for the past three gubernatorial election cycles. It is surprisingly higher than the 1,056,224 in the year prior to the 2016 election.
Looking at it quarterly and comparing it to the most similar last three gubernatorial cycles, the greatest growth appears to have come over the summer, with a bit of a drop in the holiday-dominated late fall and winter.
Registration isn’t the same thing as turnout, and turnout can be suppressed by dampening the enthusiasm for candidates. There is potential for partisan infighting of the kind that turns infrequent voters off in the City Council District 2, County Supervisor District 4, and –most of all– in the 49th Congressional District contests.
From an article covering a recent candidate forum in the 49th via Buzzfeed:
Ellen Montanari, who has organized weekly protests outside Issa’s office since the start of the Trump administration, asked the candidates to pledge that “if you do not get the nod in the primary, that you will wholeheartedly, without reservation, support and go out for the person who does win the nomination.”
“As long as it’s a fair primary,” said Applegate, kicking things off. “Absolutely…”
Why would Applegate, who nearly unseated Issa in 2016, say such a thing?
Applegate’s gripe, he explained, was that he felt the Democratic powers that be were unfairly weighing in on the race. At a meeting of a Democratic group last week, Applegate recounted, a DNC member had maligned his candidacy. The member, Applegate said, “stood up and said, ‘Nobody voted for Applegate. It was an Issa protest vote.’”
“The DNC has their finger on the scales in this one,” he said.
There is a YouTube video (it’s long and deeply personal, so I’m choosing not to provide a link) from an upset Applegate supporter, saying the person making that statement at the Democrats for Equality club meeting was Jess Durfee, Chair of Democratic National Committee Western Region.
The fear here is that campaign supporters of any candidate who feel disrespected by the process may opt to sit out the election. Yes, I know everybody should have learned their lesson with the election of #CadetBoneSpurs, but there are two realities at play here:
- Novice political volunteers with a deep emotional commitment to a campaign, and,
- A preference by longtime Democratic elders for candidates with fundraising prowess.
Rock, meet hard place.
Flip the 49th, the Political Action Committee born out of the weekly anti-Issa protests, is hoping to address some the consternation over the possibility of the Democratic candidates canceling each other out and allowing two Republicans to appear on the general election ballot.
They’ve commissioned a pollster (results coming this weekend, I think) to survey likely voters on all (GOP & Dem) candidates, matching them up against each other and testing potential campaign themes.
This information will be released so everybody can see it. I’m told some local party officials are less than pleased with this act of transparency. The hope, according to a speaker at last weekend’s Progressive Labor Summit is that some campaigns will see the writing on the wall and act “responsibly.” Five Democratic good to excellent contenders does seem like too many.
Full disclosure: I donated some public records research on all the candidates to Flip the 49th for use in developing polling questions.
Without further sermonizing, here are the numbers:
49th Congressional District
Darrell Issa’s decision to drop out of the race in the 49th Congressional District means that all the Republican candidates who’ve jumped did so after the 2017 reporting period. So, as a bonus, I’m including a little dirt on each of them instead.
Democrat Christine Prejean also came in after the first of the year. She’s a blank slate, dirtwise.
The good thing about reporting on Congressional races is that I can access data through the Center for Responsive Politics OpenSecrets.Org, and they slice it up in ways just not practical when examining local races. So, this report is done differently than yesterday’s coverage of County & City contests.
Sara Jacobs (D)
Raised $1,390,646, Cash on hand $1,236,706
Small Contributions (<$200) 1.6%
Large Contributions 21.16%
PAC Money 0
Self Funding 77.24%
Mike Levin (D)
Raised $1,221,526, Cash on hand $735,304
Small Contributions (<$200) 22.86%
Large Contributions 76.77%
PAC Money .99%
Self Funding .86%
Paul Kerr (D)
Raised $1,009,587, Cash on hand $520,041
Small Contributions (<$200) 1.22%
Large Contributions 28.56%
PAC Money 0
Self Funding 70.60%
Douglas Applegate (D)
Raised $663,090, Cash on hand $249,463
Small Contributions (<$200) 35.15%
Large Contributions 61.42%
PAC Money 4.0%
Self Funding 0
GOP Candidates
Rocky Chavez – Is considered a Republican In Name Only by the conservative wing of the party. Favors a path towards citizenship for immigrants.
Kristin Gaspar – Endorsed Donald Trump. Voted to prohibit new marijuana operations and phase out existing ones by 2022 in the county after voters passed Prop 64.
Diane Harkey – Endorsed by Issa. During her tenure with the State Board of Equalization, Gov. Jerry Brown signed a new law that decimated the tax collection agency’s staff and stripped it of most of its powers, transferring them instead to two new state departments.
Brian Maryott – Left Wells Fargo as a senior vice president and a regional manager to run for office. Ran for San Juan Capistrano City Council campaigning against sober living facilities in the city.
50th Congressional District
Given Duncan Hunter’s mounting legal and political liabilities, I have added FEC information on Darrell Issa’s 49th District reporting, who would be the logical choice to jump in if the incumbent drops out.
Darrell Issa (R-Likely to jump in)
Raised $1,660,780, Cash on hand $$1,052,398
Duncan Hunter (R-Incumbent)
Raised $454,806, Cash on hand $290,904
Small Contributions (<$200) 3.86%
Large Contributions 31.63%
PAC Money 57.08%
Self Funding 0
Shamus Sayed (R)
Raised $185,539, Cash on hand $147,486
Small Contributions (<$200) 1.5%
Large Contributions 44.60%
PAC Money 0
Self Funding 53.90%
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)
Raised $504,928 Cash on hand $298,989
Small Contributions (<$200) 19.05%
Large Contributions 83.18%
PAC Money .79%
Self Funding 0
Josh Butner (D)
Raised $421,385, Cash on hand $276,694
Small Contributions (<$200) 15.22%
Large Contributions 67.69%
PAC Money 7.83%
Self Funding .88%
Patrick Malloy (D)
Raised $397, Cash on hand $194
Small Contributions (<$200) 100%
Large Contributions 0
PAC Money 0
Self Funding 0
**Democrats Pierre Beauregard and Gloria Chadwick have dropped out the race. There are no FEC reports for Republicans Joshua Schoonover and Andrew Zelt.
51st Congressional District
Juan Vargas (D-Incumbent)
Raised $416,127, Cash on hand $64,313
Small Contributions (<$200) .18%
Large Contributions 31.42%
PAC Money 65.94%
Self Funding 0
**There is no FEC report for Republican John Denison
52nd Congressional District
Scott Peters (D- Incumbent)
Raised $1,540,155, Cash on hand $2,221,477
Small Contributions (<$200) 7.68%
Large Contributions 36.36%
PAC Money 52.64%
Self Funding 3.34%
Michael Allman (R)
Raised $321,452, Cash on hand $267,420
Small Contributions (<$200) .75%
Large Contributions 5.93%
PAC Money 0
Self Funding 93.33%
Omar Qudrat (R)
Raised $179,671, Cash on hand $40,338
Small Contributions (<$200) 5.90%
Large Contributions 51.64%
PAC Money 3.90%
Self Funding 38.96%
James Veltmeyer (R)
Raised $98,225, Cash on hand $12,770
Small Contributions (<$200) 7.86%
Large Contributions 50.29%
PAC Money 0
Self Funding 42.16%
Daniel Casara (R)
Raised $25,575, Cash on hand $5032
Small Contributions (<$200) 13.20%
Large Contributions 65.30%
PAC Money 0
Self Funding 21.51%
53rd Congressional District
Susan Davis (D- Incumbent)
Raised $159,235 Cash on hand $229,225
Small Contributions (<$200) 2.70%
Large Contributions 12.31%
PAC Money 85.31%
Self Funding 0
Bryan Kim (I)
Raised $16,428, Cash on hand $1022
Small Contributions (<$200) 96.01%
Large Contributions 14.43%
PAC Money 0
Self Funding 0
**There is no FEC information for Democrat Alexander Miller
BONUS! US Senate
Diane Feinstein (D-Incumbent)
Raised $13,006,349, Cash on hand $9,801,396
Small Contributions (<$200) 3.41%
Large Contributions 16.89%
PAC Money 7.92%
Self Funding 38.49%
Other 33.30%
The total fundraising of 6 declared candidates running against Feinstein who have filed FEC reports:
Raised $304,455 Cash on hand $120,573
**No FEC reports are available for: Donald Adams (I), Christopher Brennan (D), Erin Cruz ®, **Kevin De Leon (D), Tim Gildersleeve (I), Alison Hartson (D), Charles Junior Hodge (I), Timothy Charles Kalemkarian ®, Caren Lancona ®, Richard Thomas Mead (I), John Melendez (D), Lee W. Olson (I), Clifton Roberts (I), Jazmina Saavedra ®, Stephen James Schrader ®, Ling Ling Shi (unk)
**The Los Angeles Times reports Kevin DeLeon has raised $434,000 and has $359,000 cash on hand.
Looking for some action? Check out the Weekly Progressive Calendar, published every Friday in this space, featuring Demonstrations, Rallies, Teach-ins, Meet Ups and other opportunities to get your activism on.
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