Poll on Mayoral Candidates: Gretchen Newsom Bests Other Democrats Against Kevin Faulconer

by on November 4, 2015 · 5 comments

in Election, Ocean Beach, Organizing, Politics, San Diego

KPBS Gretch 10-30-15 vidcapt-edIn polling run-offs with Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Gretchen Newsom did the best compared to other possible Democratic mayoral candidates.

We ran a series of polls for a week and over a hundred readers participated in most of them. We asked people to choose between big-name Democrats for their pick for a candidate, and then ran a poll on each probable Democrat candidate against Faulconer.

In every poll contest her name was listed, OB Town Council president Gretchen Newsom came out on top. Of course, this could be expected – a following for the local town girl.

These polls are not scientific and we cannot determine if participants live in the City of San Diego or not. But the results do reflect the opinions of our readers – and with Newsom being favored so clearly, it’s obvious that home-town readers predominant. (Although there was one poll with David Alvarez, where Newsom had just 2 percentage points more.)

In one of the first polls, we ran different well-known Democrats – whether they are probable candidates or not – against each other. Newsom had 41% of the 102 who participated in this very broad match-up.
Donna Frye had a far second place with 14%, David Alvarez  had 13%, Ed Harris had 9%, Nathan Fletcher only had 6%, Lorena Gonzalez had 5%, Toni Atkins and Chris Kehoe each had 3%. Interestingly enough “other Democrat” had 7%.
Here is that poll results:
Between Democratic possibles. who would you vote for?
When we polled readers on “more likely Democratic candidates”, Newsom did better with 49%, Alvarez came in with 18%, Ed Harris with 16%, and Nathan Fletcher trailed with 11%. The “Other Democrat” choice received 5% in the poll with 98 participants.
Obviously, the poll series were weighted towards the Democrats, yet our opening poll showed that a good third of the respondents identified with Republicans.  Without naming any Democrat specifically, we asked readers who they would vote for, for mayor, and incumbent Kevin Faulconer came in with 30% and “some other Republican”  had 5%.  “Any Democrat” did win that poll with 53% and “independent or other” came in with 11%.

Here’s that poll and results:

Between more likely Democratic candidates, who would you vote for?
When we ran all probable Demcoratic candidates against the incumbent, Newsom still came out with a plurality of 40%, whereas Faulconer had 26%. Alvarez and Harris each  had 12%, Fletcher had 6%, and “Other Republican” had 4%. Here’s that poll:
Between the incumbent and likely Democratic candidates, who would you vote for?
Finally, we ran each of the 4 “more likely” Democratic candidates singularly with incumbent Faulconer to see how each does on their own.  In our polling, they all won over the current mayor.
In her contest, Gretchen Newsom beat Faulconer 59% to 33%, with 7% other. Newsom’s closest competitor was David Alvarez who beat Faulconer 57% to 35%, with 8% other.
Ed Harris’ match-up with Faulconer was close behind; Harris had 54% and Faulconer had 35%, with 12% other.  Lastly, Nathan Fletcher came in with 45% to Faulconer’s 37% and 17% were other.

{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }

Debbe November 4, 2015 at 3:59 pm

More on this story…..

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Lyle November 4, 2015 at 7:24 pm

Frank, I think referring to Gretchen Newsom as a “girl” is at least as bad as referring to her as “pretty”. Maybe you should let one of your female reporters edit your articles.

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Frank Gormlie Frank Gormlie November 5, 2015 at 10:50 am

Lyle – Wrong! “Hometown Girl” is a positive expression and exception to the usual sexist nature of calling women “girl”. I’m sure Gretchen would accept with positive vibrations.

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Daniel Shay November 5, 2015 at 1:49 pm

Can you imagine if she won?! How awesome would that be?! Just running is great – shake things up a bit – and bring some attention to some issues.

If any Democrat wins it would be a feat. Filner made me so mad… Before him, SD had not had a Democrat mayor elected since O’Connor left in 1992…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_San_Diego

Newsom has my vote!!!

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Jimmy November 7, 2015 at 8:48 am

Seems like a positive expression. If Gretchen Newsom feels the term is inappropriate hopefully she or her campaign staff would alert The Rag.

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