Since Primary election eve, when the results were coming in, San Diego conservatives have been celebrating their perceived “victories”. Me thinks they are celebrating way too early, as the results are not as favorable to the GOP and their extremist friends as they think it was. Check this out.
First, the California Primary was one of the lowest voter turn-outs in history – 36% – if not the lowest. Low turn-outs tend to favor conservatives, whereas large turn-0uts favor Democrats and liberals. And Democrats did stay away from the polls, as there was no big-ticket item on the ballot. Sure, Barack Obama was on it but he was a shoe-in. And Senator Dianne Feinstein was on it as well, but she didn’t have any serious challengers. Yes, there were two state-wide measures – and one of them – Prop 28 – which does aid democracy just a tad -passed handily – but how can anyone get excited about a tax on tobacco.
Lack of State-Wide Reason for Democrats to Vote
So, there was nothing state-wide driving Democrats to the polls. This did help Republicans and conservatives – but it clearly is not over yet. In November, Democrats are expected – as they always do – to vote in heavier numbers in a presidential contest that is contentious. This will greatly boost every Democrat in every race up and down the state. So, conservatives are simply celebrating too early.
Carl DeMaio and his cronies and supporters have certainly been hooting it up. Yes, Prop B did pass – but yes, it probably will end up in court. And when voters find out how badly Prop A does for the City, there will probably be a backlash against its supporters. Not good news for the GOP.
Future Mayor and City Council Democratic
Yet, DeMaio and his friends all spent a lot of money whereas everyone knows Bob Filner hardly spent anything and not even mustering a TV ad. But guess what? Filner – despite all Carl’s funds – got within two percentage points of DeMaio. Very close.
And it cannot be assumed – by any measure – that Fletcher and Dumanis’ supporters will be backing DeMaio. Friends of Fletcher will long remember the antagonism between these two younger, white guys. And Dumanis was able to garner the early support of big-name Democrats, who quiet likely will return to the fold come November.
So, for example, if two-thirds of Fletcher voters switch to Filner, and a conservative estimate of one-third of Bonnie’s people going for Bob, Filner could very well be the first Democratic mayor in twenty years for San Diego.
If Filner wins in November, what kind of City Council will he be facing?
All political observers can agree that right now, the make-up of the San Diego Council is 4 to 4 (Dems: Young, Gloria, Emerald and Alvarez versus Reps: Faulconer, Lorie Zapf, new guy Mark Kersey, and the victor Scott Sherman) . The Sherri Lightner race with Republican Ray Ellis will be a deciding factor for the balance on the Council. Lightner received 42% to Ellis’ 46%, but Democrat Bryan Pease got 7%, which likely will go to Sherri. Lightner could very well take it in five months.
With Filner in the mayor’s seat, you would then have a five to four Democratic majority on the San Diego City Council. Not bad for the “losing” side. This could happen in November, and clearly the conservatives are blowing their horns too soon.
Other Races
How did the Democrats and the Labor Council do in the other races around the County?
Obviously, Darrel Issa and Duncan Hunter, Jr. will be returning to Congress. The Dem-backed Jerry Tetalman only received half of what Issa got (31%). Anti-nuke activist Dick Eiden only got 7% of the vote in that 49th District.
The Democrats could hardly push anyone to go up against Hunter in the 50th District, but unknown David Secor garnered 17%, and the other Dem in the race got 8%. Tea Party activist challenger Terri Linnell received only 3%.
Yet Democrat Juan Vargas swept into the run-off in the 51st District with a massive 46%, sweeping aside Dem challenger Denise Ducheny, and who will likely vanquish Michael Cummins in the Fall.
And then there’s the 52nd District where Scott Peters and Lori Saldana are still trying to figure out who got the most. Whoever it is will be a very strong challenger to Brian Bilbray.
In the 53rd – Susan Davis – a Democrat of course, over-powered extremist and white-supremacist Nick Popaditch with her 57%.
Marty Block, a Dem, will go up against George Plescia for the State Senate District 39, and with fellow Democrat Patrick Marsh’s 10% of the vote, Block will probably keep his seat.
The left did not do well in both the 71st or 75th Assembly Districts – as Dem favorites Patrick Hurley and Matthew Herold both remained in the low thirties in percentages. But in the 76th, unknown Rocky Chavez with 39% will go up against Sherry Hodges. Mainstream Brian Maienschein will going up against a lesser-known Ruben Hernandez.
Toni Atkins walked away with her 60% of the vote. And in the 79th District, there was a four-way contest between four Democrats. It appears that Dr. Shirley Weber bested her D opponents and will go forward to beat Republican Mary England in November. Ben Hueso – another Democratic Party candidate in the 80th – walked away also with his seat with 60%.
This is all not too shabby for a party that supposedly was smashed in Tuesday’s polling.
The Superior Court races were something else, all together. David Berry beat out Terrie Roberts (Roberts had some questionable elements in her record), and extremist Jim Miller will be going up against liberal Robert Amador, and Miller is likely to lose. Then there’s birther Gary Kreep so close to GOP centrist Garland Peed that we don’t know the results.
In terms of the education run-offs, at the San Diego Unified School Board, we have Richard Barrera, unopposed; we have Dem-backed John Lee Evans going up against Mark Powell, and we have Dem Marne Foster winning outright for District E.
On the County Board, there’s our fave Gregg Robinson (also a blogger for us) getting in second place for a show-down with dinosaur John Witt. We have labor-backed Lyn Nelon winning a run-off with Rindone, and then there’s labor-backed Mark Anderson winning it on the first ballot. At the Community College board, labor-supported Bernie Rhinerson was the top vote getter and will be in the November run-off with Scott Hasson.
All in all, the conservatives and Republicans in this City and County are celebrating prematurely as the Primary results did not favor them as much as they would like to believe – especially with the looming November election just five months away.
Carl, put the champagne away, buddy. It’s not over yet.
And, oh, by the way, the Dems in Wisconsin took back control of the state senate.
Your mischaracterization of GySgt Popaditch is appauling and flies in the face of professional journalism. As a Filipino American and a supporter of his campaign I have personally met him and spoken to him. He is not a white supremacist nor an extremist. There are many individuals who I have met who are not caucasian who support the Marine, and moreover he is married to a Native American wife.
You may disagree with his stances on policy but to misrepresent him as a white supremacist is wrong.
Here is what I wrote in Nov 2010 about Nick Popaditch:
Mainsteam media ignore anti-Semitic violence against Bob Filner at Election Central
Popaditch supporter calls for ‘armed rebellion’ after electoral defeat.
The incident the other night at Election Central at Golden Hall where defeated tea bagger Nick Popaditch and his supporters corralled, harassed, and shoved the winner of the Congressional race Bob Filner up against a column, has not been covered by the mainstream media. Except for the OB Rag, the San Diego CityBeat, East County Magazine, and the Chula Vista Star News, San Diego and national press have ignored this violent and anti-Semitic incident against a sitting member of the US House of Representatives. (The OB Rag – with the help of CityBeat and others – broke this story.)
The story also has even more ugliness and a deep undertone of white supremacy. Filner beat Popaditch by twenty percentage points in the 51st Congressional District race.
Apparently, Popaditch has some white supremacist supporters – one of whom has posted a video about the incident and calls for “armed rebellion.”
It has also come out that Popaditch supporters yelled anti-Semitic chants at Filner – who is Jewish – spit on him, and in general caused the most violence ever witnessed at Golden Hall in the aftermath of local elections.
Dave Maass of San Diego CityBeat has been following this story and filed this report, along with new a new vid.
As Maass points out, there is irony in the fact that Popaditch has Nazi-like supporters while being surrounded himself the night of the incident by Asian bodyguards. http://obrag.org/?p=27025
How can you call someone a white supremacist without any actual evidence of that? How can you say he is anti-Semitic when there is no evidence to that? Journalism is more than just trying to create controversy. Report on facts, not some thin manufactured associations. You are a disgrace to throw such accusations at a man who has never shown any reason to believe he is anything but a good man.
Frank,
Maybe you should watch this video. It does what you failed to do in your writing, use facts to clear up misconceptions propagated by journalists like yourself.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo5293H8Ss8&feature=share
Would love to hear you apologize to Nick and his family for these accusations.
No voter can afford celebrate election results when one extreme side uses recalls and the courts to overturn the will of the people in democratic elections.
Frank,
As a minority I find it disgraceful that people like you and other white liberals would keep using the race card against my husband.
Did any of you fail to notice that right next to him was his American Indian/Hispanic wife? You claim he is a white racist? Wow, I think the tribe of 100 + in laws he belongs to would love to know this about him, the man I have been married to for over 21 years. Where does this put our mixed race sons? I think our boys might have caught this while they were being raised by him.
I also think his Marine Corps brothers and sisters of every race, color and creed would have noticed this about him while he was fighting and serving along side of them.
Fortunately for you, honorable men like him serve this country and EVERY American in it. You should be so lucky that we don’t think like you.
I took a good look last night at the people at the liberal press tables in Golden Hall and here’s what I noticed. You were all white. Do you not value people of color to be your equal? Do you not trust them to work along side of you?
Our campaign team is well represented with people of all color, we value everyone. So does the Marine Corps family we came from.
It’s sad that you have to resort to cropping pictures, editing scraps from camera phones, subtitling videos to try to lie and character assassinate a good and honorable man. Nick would never treat you this way if he met you on the street and you needed his help.
The dishonor is on you.
-April Popaditch
Correct…. the Ray Ellis race with Sherri Lightner will be a deciding factor for the balance on the Council in November. As stated Ellis received 46% to Lightner received 42% and Democrat Bryan Pease got 7%. You however failed to mention Republican Dennis Ridz got 6% of the votes cast. If one than agrees with your logic and assume Democrat Bryan Pease’s votes will go to Lighter, than one should also assume Republican Ridz votes will go to Ellis. Ellis wins in November with 52% of the votes.
Look, Mr. Gormlie, I don’t normally post comments to blogs, but do enjoy reading articles that bring value to the world or share truthful information without digressing to playground name calling or anything like that. So, you’ve achieved one feat by engaging a response from someone who doesn’t normally post. If that was the intent, great! You did it! Not tastefully, but you succeeded. Too bad you felt the need to stoop to that level in order to invoke a response. You see, I was reading down the list and came across what you said about the Davis-Popaditch race and find myself really disappointed and quite upset. At least for now, you’ve also achieved the additional distinction of your name added to those I find not worthy of reading anymore. I just have a hard time, regardless of the person mentioned, stating that someone is an “extremist” or “white supremacist” without any shred of information or regard for the truth. The sad fact is that you probably don’t even know Nick Popaditch, but you have succumbed to something you heard from one of his opponents who – by going down this road, in general, is demonstrating character less than that of the mislabeled character you describe. I get it, you are possibly seeking some sort of gratification or pat on the back from, I guess, Bob Filner or Susan Davis supporters and you figure the best way is to toss around some names. I am disappointed. I read further and you mention in 2010 that Popaditch supporters at Golden Hall pushed Bob Filner against a column and so forth Election Night and that no one covered the event except OB Rag and a few other community newspapers. I get that too. You appear to be purveying this as a champion of a cause in order to promote readership regardless of fact or objectivity. That is my earnest observation. I understand the guise and the feeling that you need to travel down that road. But, for anyone that was actually there, regardless of what role, including all the other news media, the police, and others, there really was not the level of civil discourse that was described. Either way, Nick Popaditch is not that which you describe and I apologize – on behalf of real, everyday people – to him and his family for your apparent lack of judgment in that which you write. I would feel the same way if it was said about anyone else and you may have even got me to type another note if that were the case. But, I know Nick Popaditch and the guy is just not like that. He is a honorable family man and religious man, who believes in service above self and has sacrificed greatly and yet still moves forward. I have met and interacted with Bob Filner on occasions and I won’t cast any remarks, but I am not a fan. That has nothing to do with any political party or anything, just don’t agree with his actions or misleading theatrics in general. In the end, he has to live with his actions as we all do. All that said, by your quick use of the terms, you might think they are harmless names, but to me (and I am probably not alone), they are unfair depictions and you really should not be slinging them around so freely. I can’t quite believe that I have invested this much of my thought process to this, but you are simply out of line. The OB Rag’s Comment Policy asks that we all “Stay focused, respectful, truthful.” And it further informs us all that “We (OB Rag) will delete comments that are abusive, off-topic, use excessive foul language, include personal attacks or include intentionally misleading or false information.” I hope that you agree that I have abided by those fair rules. As a reader, I ask that you consider retracting your comment and/or apologizing in much the same manner you would expect if someone were to be attacking you personally or including misleading or false information. Please consider your choice of of words in the future regardless of the target. Doing so in a “response blog” is one thing. Doing it in an article does not appear to the most honorable. That’s my opinion. I am sure that you will provide yours with probably much venom after this posting. In advance, I am sorry that you feel the need. However, after your article and all of this refelction, I probably won’t read it.
April (Papa Doc):
If someone runs into your bald husband on the street as I did once, dogs would run and cats would hide.
Why would anyone run from Nick? He’s a nice guy. While he may be a big guy and some might be intimidated by his size and the presence he brings, I can’t imagine any dogs or cats running in fear to hide. Come on now.
I agree with the headline and that’s about it. Conservatives are celebrating too early. As the metrics show, we have a lot of work to elect the reform team to office and November won’t be easy. What you neglected to mention Mr. Gormlie, is that while President Obama fared well in San Diego in 2008, he won’t in 2012 and Presidential elections are the factor which increases voter turn out.
Conservatives should stop spiking the ball and realize that we just moved it across midfield the other day. We’re going to have to continue our ground game, work hard, and turn out more ABO voters than ABCD voters.
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